Trump Is Gone, But Trumpism’s Not Forgotten

 

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Trump Is Gone, But Trumpism’s Not Forgotten

Susan Milligan  51 mins ago

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Trump Is Gone, But Trumpism’s Not Forgotten

Donald Trump is gone from Washington, metaphorically dragged kicking and screaming from a job he swears he didn't really lose, but gone nonetheless – uncharacteristically quiet as he ponders his future from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

© (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images) TOPSHOT - US President Donald Trump speaks during a Make America Great Again rally at Fayetteville Regional Airport November 2, 2020, in Fayetteville, North Carolina. - The US presidential campaign enters its final day Monday with a last-minute scramble for votes by Donald Trump and Joe Biden, drawing to a close an extraordinary race that has put a pandemic-stricken country on edge. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

But the former president is still a powerful force in GOP politics, dividing the party as it struggles to use its limited minority muscle in Washington and haunting Republican candidates who still don't know how strong Trump – or Trumpism – will be in future elections.

The division will come to a head Wednesday as Republican House members decide what to do with colleagues representing the two sides of the GOP. House Minority leader Kevin McCarthy of California is under pressure to remove Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia from her committee posts because of wild conspiracy theories Greene has espoused and comments she has retweeted calling for violence against her Democratic colleagues. McCarthy met with Greene on Tuesday night, jogging away from reporters who asked him how it went.

Meanwhile, other Republicans are looking to remove Rep. Liz Cheney from her leadership post, angry that the Wyoming lawmaker voted to impeach Trump last month. A verdict could come as soon as Wednesday, when the GOP caucus holds its weekly private meeting.

The divide threatens to upend the party not only inside the House caucus, but around the country. The Arizona Republican Party censured such figures as Cindy McCain, widow of one of the Grand Canyon State's most venerated GOP officials, the late Sen. John McCain. In Oregon, the state party issued a statement calling the Jan 6 mob attack on the U.S. Capitol a "false flag," provoking rebuke from more mainstream Republicans in the statehouse.

Meanwhile, the Senate is preparing to hold a trial of Trump on charges he incited the riot at the Capitol. Any behavior or questioning by Republican lawmakers could come back to haunt them. GOP veterans, including Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, are troubled over the image Trump acolytes like Greene are giving the party, but a failure to defend Trump vehemently could anger Trump's base.

Republicans traditionally have been successful when they stick to kitchen-table issues like jobs and fiscal responsibility, says Bob Stevenson, a principal at OB-C group, a lobbying and public affairs group, and the former communications director for former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee. But "if Republicans get drafted into these conspiracy theories, they're going to get pulled away from what their strength is," he says.

Trump's loyal base – unlike ideology-driven movements such as the tea party – is almost entirely personality driven, experts say, with followers displaying an attachment more to Trump himself than the policies he advocated.

When Trump was president, a nasty tweet or threat to endorse a primary opponent was enough to send a down-ticket GOPer into a tailspin, followed by a pledge of allegiance to Trump. But can Trumpism endure with the man himself out in front, rallying his troops?

He's a man who is deeply wounded, marred by the dubious distinction of being the only president in history to be impeached twice, and facing both legal and financial challenges in his post-presidency. But he also remains fiercely popular with his voter base – the same voters who could oust a sitting GOP lawmaker in a primary.

"The first question has to be: 'What is Trumpism?' If you define Trumpism as strong border security, economic populism and a sort of unilateral approach to global affairs, I think you'll see more of that. If you define it as governing by hate tweet, I don't think you're going to see much of that," says Michael Steel, a partner at Hamilton Place Strategies and former spokesman for GOP former House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio.

Trump loves the spotlight and the adulation of cheering crowds but might not have the patience and energy to work for fellow Republicans unless he himself has future political ambitions, experts say.

"Former President Trump will do whatever is in the financial and political interests of former President Trump," Steel says. "Depending on the actions he chooses to take, how he deals with the challenges in the financial and legal fronts, his influence could diminish more rapidly than people think," he adds.

For the moment, Trump remains an influential force in his party – though not a unifying one. In Ohio, Republican Gov. Mike DeWine laid some of the blame for the Jan 6 insurrection attempt at Trump's feet, saying he "started a fire that has threatened to burn down our democracy." Two GOP lawmakers in the Hawkeye State, meanwhile, want to make June 14 a state holiday honoring Trump.

In Georgia, several high-ranking Republicans endured verbal and physical threats for their refusal to overturn the results in favor of Trump, who called personally to make his baseless case. But Trumpism still tichrives within the party rank-and-file there, putting GOPers in an awkward position in primary elections, says Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University.

"Right now, the Republicans in Georgia just don't know what direction to go in," Abramowitz says. That could create a problem in general elections in Georgia, he says, since a Trump-loyalist GOP nominee will energize newly encouraged Democrats at least as much as the candidate would excite Trump voters. And a more establishment Republican could lead Trump voters to stay home, he adds.

Trump's new home of Florida is arguably the most friendly state to the former president, says Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University.

"The political elders of this state .. either support the president or have a reluctance to criticize him," Wagner says.

That trend – where Trump is more popular personally than the Republican Party as a whole – explains the evolution of Sen. Marco Rubio, who was highly critical of Trump during the 2016 primary but has been very loyal to the former president since then, experts say.

Rubio not only lost his home state of Florida to Trump in the 2016 presidential primary but beat the former president in just a single county: the heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade. Political veterans in Florida don't take too seriously the speculation that Ivanka Trump, the former president's daughter, will challenge Rubio in a primary in 2022, but the very possibility keeps Rubio from renewing criticism of Trump even now that he's out of office, they say.

"There's a tendency now to assume the party's his," even as he recovers from a bruising loss for reelection, says Floirida politics expert Susan MacManus, professor emerita at the University of South Florida. As Republicans battle over their future of their party, Trumpism – if not Trump – remains a force.