200-Year Flood in Calif. More Devastating Than Major Quake, USGS Says
By COLIN SULLIVAN of Greenwire
Published: January 20, 2011
A massive California rain event -- one expected to occur once every 200
years -- would far surpass destruction caused by a "Big One" earthquake,
causing more than $700 billion in damage and hobbling the state's
economy for decades, federal scientists are warning.
A blog about energy and the environment.
U.S. Geological Survey scientists ran an extreme hypothetical, called
"ARkStorm," through simulation models and determined that a deluge not
seen in California since 1862 could potentially cause three times more
damage than a large earthquake on the San Andreas Fault.
The 1861-62 winter storm -- what scientists call an "atmospheric river
storm" -- lasted for 45 days, producing precipitation that exceeded what
some areas would experience once every 500 to 1,000 years. The flooding
was so bad it reduced taxable land by a third, bankrupted the state
government and left parts of the Central Valley looking more like an
inland sea than the fertile farming area that today forms the backbone
of the state's economy.
So USGS ran a scenario based on two recent storms, in 1969 and 1986,
acting as if the accumulation of both occurred back to back. They found
that rain would fall several feet deep, flood 9 million homes and
probably overwhelm thousands of miles of levees and reservoirs.
USGS Director Marcia McNutt called the scenario "hypothetical but very
plausible" given California's historical rainfall trends as well as the
predicted effects of climate change, which some say could heighten the
likelihood of widespread flooding. The point of the study, she said, is
to help emergency planning efforts, as one dollar spent pre-emptively
avoids hundreds spent later, she said.
"If we had a catastrophic disaster that takes down the California
economy, that is a problem of national significance," McNutt said.
Lucy Jones, the primary architect of the ARkStorm test at USGS, added
that the strength of such a storm is comparable to a intense hurricane
but could leave behind far more damage as the atmospheric river keeps
dumping water after a longer period. She noted that California is the
only state outside of the hurricane-prone Southeast that tends to see
rainfall as large as, say, 16 inches over a three-day period.
"This has to happen at some point," Jones said. "How prepared are we?
That's essentially unanswerable. No flood control system can be or
should be built to withstand every possible storm."
'Serious questions'
ARkStorm report in hand, USGS held a conference last week with the
Federal Emergency Management Agency and the California Emergency
Management Agency to sound the alarm and try to get parties thinking
about what comes next.
Participants included more than 100 academics who participated in the
process over the last two years, including researchers from the physical
sciences as well as economists and social scientists.
The study itself looks at prehistoric geologic flood history in
California alongside climate projections and flood mapping to try and
point to the areas most likely to get hit hardest. Most of the damage
would come from flooding, with as much as one-fourth of all houses in
California damaged on some level.
The report notes an initial $300 billion estimate in damage would likely
be exceeded as serious flooding hampers the Central Valley, Orange
County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area and
other coastal communities. The report says:
- Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs) could increase property losses by 20 percent.
- Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, drain
flooded islands and repair damage from landslides, brings the total
direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 billion to $30
billion would be recoverable through insurance.
- Power, water, sewer and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore.
- Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the
inland region and delta counties, and business interruption costs could
reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 billion in property repair
costs, bringing ARkStorm's pricetag to the neighborhood of $725 billion.
"An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing
federal, state and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this
magnitude," the report concludes.
Also detailed in the report are the first-ever landslide susceptibility
maps for California, with hotspots identified along active coastal
ranges, which have long been highly vulnerable to fatal slides in the
middle of population centers. Environmental damage was also assessed,
given the likelihood that a series of storms akin to 1861-62 would
overwhelm wastewater treatment facilities, refineries, mining operations
and other industrial sources.
Jones said the report, which did not look at effects on marine life,
would at the very least bring severe runoff from industrial sources that
would be carried into urban areas in a swirling mix.
"It's not something we usually talk about before lunch," she said. "It's an appalling mix."
Establishing a warning system
The conclusion for emergency planners is that such a scenario, many
times worse than a Hurricane Katrina, would likely involve "decades of
recovery" rather than months or years, said Nancy Ward of FEMA.
So the ARkStorm project reached out to emergency planners, businesses,
universities, government agencies and others who prepare for major
natural disasters, much like the "ShakeOut" earthquake scenario,
published in May 2008 by USGS, looked at the effects of a 7.8 earthquake
on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California.
"This is not just a 72-hour response, this is not just months of recovery," Ward said of the ARkStorm scenario.
While comparisons to earthquake planning are inevitable in California,
the experts said the type of rainfall assessed in the report would trump
the biggest of quakes, including the 1906 trembler in San Francisco
that burned much of the city to the ground and killed more than 3,000
residents.
Mark Jackson, of the National Weather Service, noted that an 1861-level
rain event would be felt up and down the state, while a repeat of the
1906 quake -- which measured about 8 on the Richter scale and ruptured
296 miles of the San Andreas Fault -- would be more localized, even if
devastating.
ARkStorm, he said, "is not just what happens in your backyard. It would have a domino effect all the way through."
Jackson is currently engaged in trying to set up a warning system
similar to the categories widely invoked to describe hurricane
intensity. The floods in Southern California in December, for instance,
measured about 20 "Mississippi atmospheric rivers" (about a Category 2
or 3 storm), while ARkStorm would easily surpass 50 Mississippis, he
explained, comparing the amount of likely rainfall to the length and
width of several Mississippi rivers.
A crucial challenge is simulating the network of remote sensors
meteorologists use to detect wind speeds before a hurricane makes
landfall. The same system does not exist in the Pacific to measure
likely rainfall, but Jackson said NWS is working on new technologies.
"We're in the very early stages of a work in progress," he said.
Click here to link to the ARkStorm report.
Sullivan reported from San Francisco.
end quote from:
Hopefully, this isn't the year for it. I was searching for news on flooding and when I put in "Flooding in California" into Google Search this was one of the articles that came up.
People on the Truckee River and near St. Helena which already received 9 inches of rain the other day are worried about flooding right now
Here is an article on the Truckee river plan:
News10.net - 5 hours ago
An evacuation center for the Town of Truckee has been set up by the American Red Cross and emergency agencies in case the Truckee River ...
Truckee River expected to flood near Truckee; evacuation plan put in place for residents
5:16 PM, Dec 1, 2012
|
TRUCKEE, Calif. - An evacuation center for the Town of
Truckee has been set up by the American Red Cross and emergency agencies
in case the Truckee River floods Sunday morning.
The National Weather Service issued a flood warning for the Truckee
River near Truckee and is scheduled to remain in effect from Sunday
morning through Monday morning.
The Truckee River near Truckee reaches flood stage at
4.5 feet. According to the NWS, the river is expected to rise above
flood stage by Sunday morning and continue to rise to almost 7.7 feet by
late Sunday morning. The NWS predicts the river should fall below flood
stage in the Truckee area by Sunday evening.
The Red Cross, the Town of Truckee and the Nevada and
Placer County Offices of Emergency Service is established the
evacuation center, Nevada County Emergency Services Program manager
Victor Ferrera said. The center has been set up in the Administration
Building of the Tahoe Truckee Unified School District at 11603 Donner
Pass Road and is scheduled to open at 6 a.m. and remain open as long as
it is needed.
Emergency officials are advising residents, visitors and all motorists:
-
Not drive a vehicle into areas where the water
covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your
vehicle to cross safely
-
To pay special attention in areas beneath recent burn scars as these areas will be susceptible to debris flow
-
Residents in affected areas should take active precautions, monitor conditions closely and evacuate the area if needed
Sand and sandbags are available at the following locations near Truckee:
-
Old Squaw Valley fire station, 1810 Squaw Valley Road
-
North Tahoe Fire Station 52, 288 North Shore Blvd, Kings Beach (Intersection of Hwys 267 & 28)
-
Truckee: Truckee Fire Station 92, 11473 Donner Pass Road
-
Truckee Ranger Station parking lot, 10811 Stockrest Spring Rd
Sand and sandbags are also available at various
locations throughout Placer County, Nevada County, and Truckee. For a
complete listing, please visit the following website:
If you are in an area that may be affected by rising water, take the following steps:
Make an evacuation plan- what to take, where to go, how to stay in touch
- If you think you might need to evacuate, go. If you delay, you will probably be trapped
- No matter what happens, stay out of the water. Debris in flood
runoff and high flows make it extremely dangerous to attempt to retrieve
objects or rescue people
- Stay calm, think clearly and be decisive
- When in doubt, call 911 and ask for help
end quote from:
CBS Local
Flood warning in effect for Napa and St. Helena
Napa Valley Register - 4 hours ago
2012-12-01T19:42:00Z 2012-12-01T21:27:59Z Update: Flood warning in effect for Napa and St. HelenaKERANA TODOROV and HOWARD YUNE Napa Valley ...
Update: Flood warning in effect for Napa and St. Helena
Downtown Napa mostly expected to dodge bullet
Updated at 7:42 p.m.: RiverPointe Napa Valley resort on Lincoln Avenue has been evacuated and 37 modular cottages moved.
The
Napa River is projected to rise 2 feet above flood stage in St. Helena
and near Oak Knoll Avenue on Sunday, but no major flooding is expected
in downtown Napa, according to city officials.
The National
Weather Service has issued a flood warning for the Napa River in St.
Helena and the Napa area, with peak river levels expected on Sunday
afternoon.
The warning was first issued shortly after 10:30 p.m.
Friday for the St. Helena stretch of the Napa River, with the Napa area
added at 5 a.m. Saturday. The warning remains in effect until 8 p.m.
Sunday.
A wind advisory was issued until 10 a.m. Sunday, with wind
gusts reaching 30 miles per hour at lower elevations and up to 50 miles
per hour at higher elevations.
Barry Martin, a spokesman for the
city of Napa, said Saturday afternoon the city’s projections indicate
the flood control improvements that have been completed “should
accommodate the expected water flows, and that the Napa River will
remain mostly within its banks in areas south of Lincoln Avenue.”
Martin
continued, “If rainfall totals reach the maximum predicted, there may
be minor flooding near the Lincoln Avenue Bridge, and, as designed in
the flood project, the lower portion of Veterans Memorial Park may be
inundated. As a precaution for public safety, Veterans Memorial Park and
the Riverfront promenade, as well as the Oxbow Preserve park, will be
closed to the public throughout (the) day Sunday.”
Three to 4
inches of rain was expected at lower elevations and up to 8 inches of
rain at the higher elevations, according to the city. The heaviest
rainfall is expected between 6 a.m. and noon Sunday.
The forecast
calls for the river in the Napa area to peak at near 27 feet Sunday
afternoon, according to the National Weather Service. Flood stage is 25
feet.
In St. Helena, the river is expected to exceed the flood
stage of 16 feet at noon Sunday, then crest at 18 feet before falling in
the evening. The Napa River was measured at 4.6 feet at 1:30 p.m.
Saturday, according to the National Weather Service.
The city of
Napa has set up a self-serve sandbagging operation on Freeway Drive,
just north of Napa Premium Outlets, that is open around the clock.
At
flood stage, minor flooding is expected in the lowest areas along the
river, including some rural roads. But at 18 feet, moderate flooding is
expected along the lower areas of towns, primary and secondary roads.
“We
are keeping a close eye on the river and will continue to do so
throughout the weekend,” said Napa County Emergency Services Manager
Kerry Whitney.
RiverPointe Napa Valley, a resort on Lincoln
Avenue, was evacuated Saturday afternoon and 37 modular cottages were
being moved, according to front office manager Dana Richardson.
CalFire’s Yountville station was ready to respond to flooding in low-lying areas.
Yountville
Town Manager Steve Rogers on Saturday said Yountville’s public works
and public safety personnel are on high alert. CalFire has a swift water
rescue crew on standby in Yountville.
In St. Helena, police Sgt.
Chris Hartley said police are keeping a watch on the river, checking the
gauge by the Pope Street Bridge. Sandbags are being distributed at the
end of Library Lane and at Crane Park, he said. The police department
has contacted St. Helena’s neighborhood watch representatives and
reached the manager at Vineyard Valley, a mobile home park that has
flooded in the past.
“If something happens, we’re prepared,” said
Hartley, who nonetheless was hopeful that the recent multimillion-dollar
flood control improvements completed on the Napa River will prevent
flooding problems.
On Saturday, as a precaution, county-owned
vehicles were moved from the county’s yard on Water Street in Napa,
Whitney said. And across Soscol Avenue, parents and students at St. John
the Baptist Catholic School on Napa Street placed dozens of sandbags by
the school’s and church’s entryways.
According to the weather
service, a hazardous-weather outlook covers the Bay Area through the
weekend, and a flash flood watch is in effect until early Monday.
As
of 5 p.m. Saturday, the storms since Thursday had brought 2.5 inches of
rain to the city of Napa’s corporation yard on Jackson Street,
according to county gauges.
Mount Veeder recorded 7.7 inches,
Mount St. Helena 6.9 inches. Hopper Creek next to Highway 29 received
7.8 inches, and Yountville Cross Road 6.6 inches.
By Wendy | Freshome – Mon, Nov 19, 2012 1:29 PM EST
If you click on this photo from Spaceweather.com from norway it should open up into one of the most amazing aurora photos I have ever seen. if you click it again while there is should open up and fill your page window.
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