I was trained as a computer programmer from age 18 in college. One of the ways we were taught to solve any problem was to flowchart the problem. I'm not talking here about adding if then branches or yes no branches but just a simple flowchart. I think we as westerners often get caught up in reactions to events without seeing the causation train of events from a middle eastern perspective and because of that we as westerners tend to muck things up because we cannot get inside of the minds of people who actually live there. So, most of the problems of the middle east right now are left over from tribalism for thousands of years and from European and American colonialism throughout the 20th century. So, we are in the aftermath of not understanding how middle eastern people think and process information. Though each one is an individual of course, their solutions are not going to be western solutions and this is the problem the world faces including people from the middle east.
I have had this blog and studied the problem for at least 7 years now. So, I might be able to add some insights for anyone looking at this simple flow chart.
Flowchart of the middle East from about the beginning of the Arab Spring
Tunisia fruit salesman douses himself with gasoline and burns himself up with gasoline
Tunisia explodes creating a new government
This affects all countries in the middle east
Egypt and Libya explode
Yemen explodes
Qaddhafi is killed in the LIbyan revolution
Libya becomes a mess a disaster zone
Egypt becomes a disaster zone under Morsi
SISi takes over from Morsi
Syria explodes
Russia gets freaked out along with Iran
They decide Assad stays in power no matter what
hundreds of thousands of Sunnis in Syria die from torture or just murder
ISIS gets funding from rich Arabs especially with oil money
ISIS is Sunni Revenge against what Assad, Russia and IRan have done to Sunnis in Syria
ISIS morphs after realizing it cannot defeat Russia, Iran and Assad all together
ISIS forms a tentative reliance and relationship with Assad in order to becom richer
and to create the Caliphate
ISIS succeeds in this and starts to take over not only Syria but also parts of IRaq
ISIS starts killing all minorities especially Shias who they hate the most but also
Christians, Yazidis, Turkmen and Kurds.
The U.S. get involved after Christians cry out that have been living there already for 2000 years or more in the Middle East "We are being driven extinct" they say. which is true
The U.S. sends in fighter bombers to bomb and straff ISIS positions and to blow up U.S. tanks that
ISIS stole from the Iraqi Army.
ISIS keeps growing because of 1.1 billion Sunnis on earth pissed at Russia, Iran, Assad etc.
Now, how does the world solve this problem?
I leave it to you to put in IF then branches or yes no branches into this simple flow chart if you wish.
The real problem is to me is that ISIS is going to keep growing and killing everyone but the most extreme Sunnis throughout the middle east.
They also likely are going to overthrow one by one governments like Assad, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan. Likely their first target would be Lebanon because of Hezbollah and second would be Iran.
Though the U.S. can destroy all their tanks and all their armored pick up trucks one by one it isn't feasible to blow up every motorcycle ferrying soldiers or every atv or small not armored pick up truck when many missiles are 1 million dollars a pop.
So, financially 1 million or more for every tank or pick up truck you blow up is a losing proposition in the long run for the U.S. just like the Iraq war and the war in AFghanistan brought the Great Recession to the world too.
What is the solution?
Do we just leave the middle east alone and watch it nuke out from Russian nukes? or what?
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