Monday, September 17, 2018

The Trade War could very easily spark a world wide recession

This is what has always seemed sort of risky about imposing a Trade War. On one level from Trump's point of view it is about rectifying grievances with countries like China and maybe the European Union. However, in real time I'm not sure how useful that thinking actually is because of the real risks of a worldwide recession triggered by a Trade War like Trump started. And beyond that the ONLY ONE at the end of this who will be blamed for the Trade War will be Trump and indirectly the U.S.

So, if a recession (we are now timing wise due for a recession of some sort by the way) comes Trump and the U.S. cannot help be blamed for this by the rest of the world. And God help us if a 2nd Great Depression comes from the extreme loss of jobs and businesses caused by the Trade war in the U.S. and worldwide then this could be catastrophic for the U.S. in retribution and bad karma directed against our nation.

So, in the long run any advantages of this Trump Trade War are likely to be very IFFY at best.

And also, China makes plans in 25, 50 and 100 year increments and we only make plans that last at most 4 to 8 years at a time (the length of a non-impeached president). So, the downside of this Trade War is that China will continue a Trade war against the U.S. and Europe for 25 to 50 years which could wipe out the bottom 25% of people by income in the U.S. and Europe during the next 25 to 50 years time.

Note: Something else to thing about. World War II began with Pearl Harbor for the U.S.  which was a direct response to a Trade War waged by the U.S. against Japan before the war.

Trade Wars historically also can become bloody wars in addition to trade wars very very easily.

So, it is possible after Trump is dead and gone from old age the consequences of Trump's trade war will continue to cost both the U.S. and Europe far into the future.

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