HURRICANE CENTRAL
Tropical Storm Nadine Spinning in the Open Atlantic and There's an Area to Watch in Western Caribbean
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What's After Michael? Nadine and an Area We're Watching
Meteorologist Heather Tesch looks at the forecast for a few tropical systems that could come into play after Michael sweeps out to sea.
At a Glance
- Tropical Storm Nadine is located in the open Atlantic Ocean.
- The western Caribbean is an area to watch for tropical development by early next week.
Tropical Storm Nadine is pushing through the Atlantic and there is an area to watch for tropical development in the western Caribbean following Hurricane Michael's destructive strike.
Here's a look at what's next in the Atlantic.
(MICHAEL COVERAGE: Hurricane Central)
Nadine in the Eastern Atlantic
Tropical Storm Nadine is located in the eastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Tropical Storm Nadine Path
(From the National Hurricane Center.)
Nadine will track northwestward through the open Atlantic into the weekend far from any land areas.
Some additional good news is that Nadine will encounter unfavorable upper-level winds, dry air and cooler sea-surface temperatures along its future path late this week. Those factors will lead to the storm's demise into a remnant low this weekend.
Nadine is notable for the location where it formed. It's the farthest east on record a named storm has developed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean so late in the hurricane season, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University.
Western Caribbean an Area to Watch
One of October's typical hot spots for tropical development is the western Caribbean. Hurricane Michael and last year's Hurricane Nate are a couple recent examples of October storms that formed in this region of the Atlantic basin.
Meteorologists look for signs of lowering atmospheric pressure and increased storminess in the western Caribbean as precursors for tropical development. This is sometimes associated with a so-called Central American Gyre (CAG), a broad area of low pressure that can extend from the western Caribbean to Central America.
Various computer model forecast guidance suggests there will be an uptick in stormy weather and lowering pressure in the western Caribbean this weekend into early next week.
An area of low pressure may develop in the western Caribbean this weekend or early next week and may need to be watched for tropical development.
It's too early to say whether a tropical depression or tropical storm would form from this area of low pressure. The next named storm in the Atlantic would be Oscar.
For now, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there is a medium chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean during the next five days. Atmospheric conditions may allow for some slow organization this weekend into early next week, the NHC added.
Watching Western Caribbean
(The potential area(s) of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are shown by polygons, color-coded by the chance of development over the next five days. An "X" indicates the location of a current disturbance.)
Initial indications are that if the low develops it would initially be steered westward by high pressure to its north toward Central America or the Yucatan. Where it would track beyond that point is not certain at this time.
Check back with weather.com for the latest on the tropics through the weekend.
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