Monday, February 7, 2022

retired general Spider Marks said: "With 70% of their forces in place they could invade at any time now"

 In other words Russia now has enough military forces in place to begin their invasion of Ukraine and while they entered Ukraine they could reinforce with the other 30%.

So, we are now in the last period where Putin could invade with Tanks because by March the dirt roads he would invade on would all be muddy and tanks would be getting stuck. So, he has only at most 20 to 30 days now or less depending upon the weather where he could actually invade with tanks.

However, I believe the U.S. and other nations have sent shoulder fired anti-tank weapons into Ukraine so invading Ukraine with Tanks could be as bad an idea as it was in Afghanistan against the Mujahideen when the Soviets invaded there around 1980 or so. Because if you have anti-tank shoulder fired missiles the tanks would soon be gone unless fighter jets targeted all soldiers with anti-tank weapons which would be difficult.

However, if Russia did an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) and killed all the electronic technology nothing would run even the tanks likely so that is another scenario. But, if they did this their jets in the sky would crash too if the EMP hit their electronics.

So, we are definitely in a completely different warfare scenario than we would have seen in 1980 in Afghanistan with the Mujahideen against the Soviets. 

Also, eventually the Soviet Union Collapsed partly because the Mujahideen shot down so many attack helicopters and jets and tanks that it eventually bankrupted the old Soviet Union along with Saudi Arabia forcing the price of oil to stay low also killed the old Soviet Union because the Soviet Union just like Russia today is mostly making it's money for the government from the sale of oil. So, the price of oil allows the government of Russia to function.

So, one way to prevent Russia from invading now would be to drop the price of oil down to maybe 40 dollars a barrel from 90 dollars a barrel.

This might prevent Russia from invading Ukraine (or not). But, it might be worth a try.

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