Yemen's
army barely resisted this September when Houthi fighters swept into the
capital Sanaa and in just a few days wrested control of most major
government buildings, from the offices of state radio to the central
banks and the prime minister's office.
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Last week, a Shiite rebel group that had taken over swaths of Yemen, including its capital, signed a UN-brokered agreement with other political parties to form a new government and end the fighting that has claimed the lives of at least 300 people.
But despite the peace deal and lofty promises from all sides, Yemen's political troubles appear far from over.
Yemen's army barely resisted this September when Houthi fighters swept into the capital Sanaa and in just a few days wrested control of most major government buildings, from the offices of state radio to the central banks and the prime minister's office.
The Houthis belong to Yemen's Zaydi minority, a Shia sect that controlled the country until 1962. The group started as a Zaydi revivalist movement
in the '90s, with its power base in the northern Saada province, on the
border with Saudi Arabia. It was named after its then-leader Hussein al-Houthi, but its members refer to themselves as Ansar Allah, which means "Partisans Of God."
The
group's recent battles against the army are merely the latest effort of
a longstanding campaign. Feeling marginalized by former President Ali
Abdullah Saleh, the Houthis engaged in no fewer than six wars with the central government between 2004 and 2010. Hussein al-Houthi was killed in the first of those clashes.
The International Crisis Group explained in a June briefing
that while the Houthis didn't have much of a political agenda through
that turbulent decade, the group shifted its footing in 2011, after
Yemenis took to the streets in the wake of the Arab Revolts in Egypt and
Tunisia. The group took advantage of the political and security vacuum
created by the mass protests, strengthening its military position in the
northern Saada region and widening its popular appeal significantly by
supporting populist measures like fuel subsidies. According to the Economist,
the group even swayed many Sunnis who appreciated both its distance
from Yemen's power brokers and its political positions, which are
liberal when compared to those of other, more radical Sunni parties.
The
Houthis were able to take full control of Saada early in 2014, and
gradually extended their reach south until they arrived at the capital
this summer. As Zack Beauchamp details over at Vox,
the group started staging massive protests against the government of
President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, Saleh's successor, and his policy on
fuel subsidies. The protests turned into clashes, and the Houthis
eventually entered Sanaa and overran an army brigade allied with the Islamist Islah party.
The
peace deal signed last week by Hadi gives the Houthis a much-increased
role in Yemeni politics. Since March 2013, Yemen's main political
parties have been collaborating in an effort known as the National Dialogue Council,
to discuss how the country should proceed in light of the 2011
protests. While the Houthis were barely represented in previous
discussions, the new deal allows them and members of Yemen's southern
separatist movement to name a new prime minister.
Representatives of the group will also have positions as advisers to
the president. In exchange, the Houthis have promised to relinquish
control of the capital once a new administration is formed, and to
reaffirm state authority over the entire country.
A
Houthi rebel gestures from a tank at the compound of the army's First
Armored Division in Sanaa, Yemen, Sept. 22, 2014. (AP Photo/Hani
Mohammed)
Yet, as Iona Craig points out at Al Jazeera America,
Yemeni politics likely played a greater role in the Houthis' success
than did the group's military capabilities or its popular support.
According to Craig, Hadi may have been counting on the Houthi to reduce
the influence of some of his rivals.
Craig reports:
Since
their lightning takeover of the city, Houthi militias have attacked the
adversaries of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh and political rivals
of current President Abdrahbu Mansour Hadi. But the apparent ease of
the Houthi victory reveals much more about the smoke and mirrors of
Yemeni politics than it does about the militiamen's fighting prowess.
Indeed, by allowing the Houthis free rein of the capital, Hadi has taken
a gamble that could bring more violence as the backlash against the
Houthi uprising gains strength.
Observers suggest
the president's political games may backfire if the Houthis don't live
up to their side of the bargain. Even having signed the peace deal, the
Houthis are still firmly in control. This week, the group ordered the
country's finance minister to suspend all payments
except salaries to state employees. It's also rumored that Houthis are
keeping an eye on the state-owned Safer oil company, and reportedly
froze new civil service hiring.
The Houthis' rise has sparked concerns both in Yemen and abroad.
The U.S. and Saudi governments have both expressed concern
that the Shiite militia is backed by Iran. According to Buzzfeed's
Gregory Johnsen, the fear is not entirely founded. "The U.S. has
repeatedly expressed concern over the growth of the Houthi movement in
Yemen, publicly worrying that the group is sponsored by Iran. While
there is some evidence of cooperation and support from Iran, it is
unclear what exactly that money buys in Yemen, where many groups accept
outside funding without ever acting as proxies," he writes. "Although
tempting to see the Houthis as part of larger Sunni-Shiite war, this is a
local war with a regional dimension."
More concerning is the
potential for intensified violence and further destabilization of the
country in the wake of the Houthis' ascent. Yemen's south is home to the
militants of AQAP, al-Qaeda's branch in the Arabian peninsula, and the
Sunni extremists have long fought the Shiite Houthi rebels. Just last
week. AQAP called on its followers
to attack the Houthis where they can. "Lie in wait for them, cause harm
to them on the roads, tighten the ambushes for them, and do not let
them feel safe," the Sunni group said in a statement.
A Houthi rebel
stands guard at a checkpoint on a street leading to the state television
building in Sanaa, Sept. 21. (AP Photo/Hani Mohammed)
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