begin quote from:
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-05-hurricane-sergio-baja-desert-southwest
HURRICANE CENTRAL
Hurricane Sergio May Track Into Mexico's Baja Peninsula and Bring More Heavy Rain to Southwest
00:39
Hurricane Sergio Forecast to Make U-Turn and Bring Rain to Southwest
The Southwest was hit hard by heavy rain from Rosa earlier this week, is forecast to get more rain next week from Hurricane Sergio. Flooding is possible from the storm.
At a Glance
- Sergio is currently an eastern Pacific hurricane.
- It will reverse course early next week and head toward Baja California late next week.
- Its remnant may bring more flooding rain to parts of the Desert Southwest.
- Its moisture may even wring out snow in the northern Rockies.
Hurricane Sergio will make a U-turn and push toward Baja California late next week, and its remnant moisture could once again trigger flooding in the Desert Southwest.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Sergio is currently hundreds of miles west of the Baja California coast in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
On Oct. 3, Sergio became the eighth Category 4 hurricane of the 2018 eastern Pacific hurricane season, topping a previous record of seven Category 4 hurricanes in an eastern Pacific season set in 2015, according to Eric Blake, tropical scientist at the National Hurricane Center.
Usually, an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone moving westward is of little concern for land impact. Simple geography there.
Projected Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)
In Sergio's case, however, its steering winds are going to reverse.
Basically, high pressure aloft to its northwest is going to retreat, and a southward plunge of the jet stream near the West Coast of the U.S. takes over as the steering wheel for Sergio next week.
This will force Sergio to take a rather sharp U-turn in a few days.
The southward plunge of the jet stream that will steer Sergio toward Baja California and the Desert Southwest.
This jet stream plunge will also provide increasing wind shear, which, together with increasingly cooler ocean water, will weaken Sergio before it arrives in Baja California.
(MORE: Interactive Sergio Forecast Path)
While Sergio will be greatly weakened by the time it heads into Baja California, it may have a more interesting future ahead as an inland remnant.
Sergio's remnant spin above the surface and moisture may wring out more locally heavy rain in the Desert Southwest late next week as it sweeps northeastward.
This could trigger more flash flooding, which, unfortunately, turned deadly from the remnants of another former eastern Pacific hurricane, Rosa, this past week.
Now, here's the strange part.
Some of that remnant moisture late next week may wrap into sufficiently cold air to bring yet more snow to the northern Rockies, on top of the snow they'll receive the first half of the week.
Thursday Night's Forecast
(The green shadings depict where rain and thunderstorms are possible. Areas that are shaded blue could see snow. Purple-shaded locations may see a mix of snow and rain.)
So, you might say a remnant of a former hurricane may help produce snow.
This has happened before, as recently as earlier this decade.
Almost six years ago, Superstorm Sandy had a largely forgotten snowy side, burying parts of the Appalachians in late-October 2012.
In addition, swells from Sergio will also increase surf along the southern California coast this weekend and dangerous rip currents are also expected.
No comments:
Post a Comment