Yes. I agree. Trump is likely more certifiable "crazy" simply because he has the same sociopathic personality disorder as Hitler did "Narcissistic Personality disorder". So, since both are sociopathic. It is arguable whether Kim Jong Un is sociopathic. But, maybe. For example, as dictators wouldn't Saddam Hussein, Qaddhafi, and Kim Jong Un be considered sociopathic for starving and killing so many of their people?
I think you might have to have a whole different classification for people who are dictators simply because they often have the same profile as mafia lords and war lords of various countries. So, are all these sociopathic? I think it depends upon your definition of dictator and sociopathic. IS Putin Sociopathic for repressing his people and preventing anyone against him from voting? Is Trump sociopathic for questioning the news media for reporting true things about him that he doesn't like? I'm not sure I have a useful answer here.
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CIA: Kim Jong Un isn't crazy
CIA: Kim Jong Un isn't crazy
Story highlights
- Top officials from the CIA said Wednesday that Kim's actions are not those of a maniacal provocateur
- US-led efforts to apply additional diplomatic pressure on North Korea in recent months have been met with greater defiance
Washington (CNN)Between
the ruthless executions of his own senior officers, bombastic threats
of nuclear annihilation and defiant missile tests, it may be easy to
agree with President Donald Trump's recent assessment that North Korean
leader Kim Jong Un is a "madman" who is "on a suicide mission for himself."
But
top officials from the CIA said Wednesday that Kim's actions are not
those of a maniacal provocateur but a "rational actor" who is motivated
by clear, long-term goals that revolve around ensuring regime survival.
"There's
a clarity of purpose in what Kim Jong Un has done," according to Yong
Suk Lee, deputy assistant director of the CIA's Korea Mission Center,
who discussed the escalating tensions between North Korea and the US
during a conference organized by the agency at George Washington
University.
Why North Korea wants nukes and missiles
North
Korea has long maintained it wants nuclear weapons and long-range
missiles to deter the United States from attempting to overthrow the
regime of Kim Jong Un.
Pyongyang looks at states such as Iraq -- where Saddam Hussein was overthrown by the United States -- and Libya -- its late leader, Moammar Gadhafi, gave up his nuclear ambitions for sanctions relief and aid, only to be toppled and killed after the United States intervened in his country's civil unrest -- and believes that only being able to threaten the US mainland with a retaliatory nuclear strike can stop American military intervention.
Many experts say they believe North Korea would not use the weapons first. Kim values his regime's survival above all else and knows the use of a nuclear weapon would start a war he could not win, analysts say.
Pyongyang looks at states such as Iraq -- where Saddam Hussein was overthrown by the United States -- and Libya -- its late leader, Moammar Gadhafi, gave up his nuclear ambitions for sanctions relief and aid, only to be toppled and killed after the United States intervened in his country's civil unrest -- and believes that only being able to threaten the US mainland with a retaliatory nuclear strike can stop American military intervention.
Many experts say they believe North Korea would not use the weapons first. Kim values his regime's survival above all else and knows the use of a nuclear weapon would start a war he could not win, analysts say.
"Waking
up one morning and deciding he wants to nuke" Los Angeles is not
something Kim Jong Un is likely to do, Lee said. "He wants to rule for a
long time and die peacefully in his own bed."
And
for CIA officers, diplomats and lawmakers tasked with utilizing
intelligence to protect the US and its allies from the security threats
posed by North Korea, understanding that purpose could prove to be key
in avoiding a potentially devastating military conflict.
US-led
efforts to apply additional diplomatic pressure on North Korea in
recent months have been met with greater defiance as the Kim regime
continues to march toward realizing its nuclear ambitions.
Despite
assurances from Defense Secretary James Mattis and Secretary of State
Rex Tillerson that the US continues to seek a peaceful resolution,
neither side has overtly indicated that it is ready or willing to engage
in serious negotiations.
The mixed-messages coming from the Trump administration also continue to raise questions about the US approach to North Korea.
Trump
has repeatedly undercut comments made by his top officials and publicly
engaged in a war of words with Kim that has devolved into insults and
name-calling -- only raising fears of an eventual military conflict.
"When
they hear what's coming from the President, I think it resonates with
them," said Ambassador Joseph R. DeTrani, who previously served at the
Department of State as the Special Envoy for Six-Party Talks with North
Korea.
"But they also know we have a process and I think right now they're probing," he said.
But
while Trump continues to publicly paint Kim as an irrational dictator,
CIA officials said the intelligence community views the North Korean
leader's actions through a different lens.
"The
last person who wants conflict on the peninsula is actually Kim Jong
Un," Lee said. "We have a tendency in this country and elsewhere to
underestimate the conservatism that runs in these authoritarian
regimes."
While Kim may not want a
war with the US, he does view the strategy of perpetuating a
confrontational relationship as a key to maintaining his grip on power,
according to Lee and Michael Collins, deputy assistant director of the
east Asia and Pacific mission center at the CIA.
"North Korea is a political organism that thrives on confrontation," Lee said.
Since succeeding his father in 2011, Kim's rise from political novice to adept operator
has stemmed from a calculated commitment to consolidating power within
his own regime and transforming North Korea into a nuclear state.
Internally, Kim has demonstrated a willingness to purge those who might pose a threat to his rule.
One
report from a South Korean think tank, the Institute for National
Security Strategy, claims he has ordered the executions of at least 340
people since he came to power -- 140 of whom were senior officers in the
country's government, military and ruling Korean Worker's Party.
In 2013 he executed his own uncle,
Jang Song Thaek. By making it particularly visible, with state media
declaring Jang a "traitor for all ages," Kim made sure there was no
dissent to the decision.
He
is also accused of ordering the assassination of his half-brother, Kim
Jong Nam, earlier this year in Malaysia but North Korea has repeatedly
and vehemently denied any involvement.
While
ruthless and violent, Kim's behavior fits the profile of a leader
acting out of his own self-interest, rather than emotion or impulse, Lee
said -- a theme that is consistent in his dealings with the US as well.
"Kim's long-term goal is to come
to some sort of big power agreement with the US and to remove US
presence from the peninsula," Lee said, adding he wants to make North
Korea relevant on the global stage again.
But
Kim's efforts to develop a reliable long-range nuclear weapon have long
conflicted with the security priorities of the US and its allies in
the region -- a concern that has become more urgent in recent months in
the wake of several successful missile and nuclear tests.
"North
Korea is clearly testing the patience of the US and international
community," Collins said. "With each increasing escalation, they're
raising the threshold for the United States and others to accept or
press back against that."
But Kim seems undeterred by Trump's threats despite the US President telling the United Nations General Assembly last month that Kim is "on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime."
Kim's
actions indicate he is no longer constrained by fears that China might
abandon its support for his regime or that the US will launch a military
strike -- two major factors that have tempered Pyongyang's boldness in
the past, according to Lee.
Unbounded
by those fears, the situation "becomes a tolerance of wills," Lee said,
adding now the question is "how far will Kim Jong Un go?"
Collins
and Lee both emphasized that China could still wield significant
influence over North Korea but said Beijing would have to make the
choice of prioritizing its relationship with the US over the strategic
benefits of backing Pyongyang.
"China's
strategic goal is to frustrate US and maintain division of peninsula,"
Lee said, adding that the US must continue to demonstrate to both
Beijing and Pyongyang that all options remain on the table through shows
of military force.
"First and foremost, the situation with North Korea is a test of what China wants in its relationship with US," Collins added.
According
to Collins, the intelligence community is currently wrestling with
questions related to North Korea's resolve and monitoring how major
players in the region respond to Pyongyang's provocations in an effort
to gauge how far the Kim regime is willing to push the envelope.
Kim
remains unlikely to intentionally start a war with the US or its allies
like South Korea as that would almost certainly result in his own
destruction, according to Collins and Lee, but both CIA officials said
they anticipate tensions with North Korea will continue -- raising the
risk of a miscalculation from both sides.
"The
South Korean and North Korean Navy's are going toe-to-toe every day ...
there is potential for conflict at anytime," Lee said.
"We
could stumble into something," DeTrani said, noting a potential
scenario in which the US shoots down a North Korean missile deemed to be
an imminent threat and prompting a response from Pyongyang.
And
while the prospect of a North Korean preemptive strike on the US or one
of its allies remains unlikely, DeTrani admitted that "there is a sense
that North Korea is unpredictable if put into a corner."
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