Saturday, May 21, 2016

The Most unpopular candidates ever in a U.S. Presidential Race

  1. begin partial quote from:

    Will Trump vs. Clinton be nail-biter? - cnn.com

    www.cnn.com/2016/05/21/politics/hillary-clinton-donal...
    May 20, 2016 · Washington (CNN)Democrats knew a general election battle between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would be rough, but many never considered the potential ... 

    The most unpopular candidates ever

    When Trump and Clinton face off, they will become the most unpopular nominees of two major parties in many years, making the task they both face in shifting undecided voters their way more difficult than ever.
    In the CBS/New York Times poll, Trump had a favorable rating of 26% and an unfavorable mark of 55%. Clinton was viewed favorably by 31% of voters and unfavorably by 52%.
    Such antipathy in the electorate, makes it a tough call for analysts to model turnout in November.
    If Clinton does get a 2012-style turnout, she will likely win. But Trump could make things close if he is able to reshape the Republican coalition.
    "There is no guarantee that traditional survey research is going to be adequate to the Trump phenomena," said William Galston, a Brookings Institution senior fellow who worked in the Bill Clinton White House.
    "People have four choices in this election. You can vote for one or the other, you can cast a protest vote or you can simply stay home," Galston said. "And the election may well be decided by the comparative weight of the abstentions."
    Clinton needs to maximize turnout from Latino, African-American, women and young educated voters, and hopes to peel away some Republicans who believe Trump has isolationist instincts that represent a dangerous departure on foreign policy.
    Hillary Clinton full CNN interview (part 1)

    Hillary Clinton full CNN interview (part 1) 13:09
    Clinton is already making a case that the billionaire is not qualified to be president, lacks the knowledge, temperament and experience to serve as commander-in-chief and would alienate U.S. allies and make the world more dangerous while dividing the nation along gender and ethnic lines.
    "I know how hard this job is, and I know that we need steadiness as well as strength and smarts in it, and I have concluded he is not qualified to be president of the United States," Clinton said in a CNN interview on Thursday.
    Trump, meanwhile, is betting on Clinton fatigue, billing the former secretary of state and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, as "crooked" and scandal-tainted and as the heir to an administration he says has left America weak. He also complains the U.S. has become a hostage to political correctness in dealing with threats from the Muslim world, and is being ripped off by trade deals that benefits rivals like China.
    Clinton may also be vulnerable on the economy.
    Quinnipiac polls showing Trump had double digit leads in the three swing states over Clinton on who would best handle the economy hardly calmed their nerves and pointed to an alarming vulnerability for Clinton in areas of the electoral battleground that could add up to a tightly contested election.
    "Blue-collar white independents give Donald Trump some credit on the economy because of his message and his business background," said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who conducts the George Washington University Battleground poll, calling for the kind of intense advertising campaign against Trump that helped Democrats eviscerate the character and business record of former Bain Capital venture capitalist Romney in 2012.
    "I think to ensure victory, we need to take that away from him. We need the Bain project -- that says who got hurt by his economic policies," Lake said. "We need an aggressive economic message and our party has not had one."

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