The advent of military drones and their rapidly expanding portfolio of capabilities has already had a major impact on the future of warfare planning across the United States. The Pentagon has launched a major program to build a new artificial intelligence for controlling its own drone efforts, and Google is helping it. Concern over the long-term impact of low-cost missiles and drones drove the Navy’s research into railguns and other delivery vehicles with lower-cost projectile systems until those programs were shelved. Legal experts and military tacticians have both debated how the use of remote autonomous vehicles could challenge existing views on the use of force across the military and in civilian encounters.
But our view of a military drone as an expensive, large, fixed-wing aircraft with a bevy of sophisticated onboard sensors and capabilities may rapidly be as obsolescent as the idea of wooden-hulled battleships. As a recent story in The Atlantic points out, rapid advances in drone technology are making it easier to deploy incredibly primitive “drones” that are still capable of doing real damage.
The National Academy of Science was recently commissioned to write a report on the risks of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) and whether the military’s existing timetable for evaluating and developing responses to existing threats is satisfactory. The subsequent report wasted few words, stating:
The U.S. Army’s force capability timeframe is too drawn out to address the rapid advancements in sUAS performance capabilities and anticipated threat uses. This is because potential adversaries are improving their sUAS capabilities on commercial and consumer developmental timelines.
FAA investigations into a single drone firing a handgun make headlines in the US — and to be sure, that’s something civilian law enforcement should absolutely care about — but forget about the dubious mechanics of trying to fire a weapon aboard a moving platform with a weight measured in ounces. A simple drone built out of plywood can carry and drop a hand grenade. Russian drones carrying a pound of thermite are believed to have destroyed two Ukrainian ammo depots last year, in July and September. And an entire swarm of primitive drones struck Russian forces in Syria this year. Of the 13 drones that struck Russia’s Syrian HQ, seven were shot down and six brought down by electronic countermeasures. While the Russians defeated this attack, it proves the point — militias and guerilla organizations working with minimal tools can now build drones capable of launching attacks.
The US military has invested in electronic countermeasures, believing that the key to stopping drones is the use of jamming. But as drones become more proficient at making decisions on their own, the need for a remote uplink could vanish altogether. And as the report notes, simply shooting at the diminutive drones isn’t a great option for stopping them.
“Kinetic counters, such as shooting down a single, highly dynamic, fast-moving, low-flying hobby aircraft with small arms (rifles, shotguns, and light machine guns), are extremely difficult due to the agility and small size of sUASs,” the report states. “Additionally, swarming sUASs can be employed to overwhelm most existing kinetic countermeasures.”
The United States is working on its own drone swarms, including a recent test of a deployment of more than 100 robin-sized micro-drones designed by Perdix from a pair of F-18s. The Perdix drones are being built as part of research into using large swarms of drones with a distributed intelligence. The goal is to use them for unmanned aerial surveillance, taking advantage of the fact that it’s much harder to hit a bunch of tiny drones than a single large target like a Predator drone.
It’s not clear yet what an effective response to this attack strategy will look like. The military still grapples with fighting guerilla and insurgent forces effectively because the nature of civil conflict within states is, for various reasons, a difficult problem for conventional armed forces to confront. The advent of cheap, easily assembled drone swarms serving as a micro-bombing fleet could make such situations worse. How do you identify and strike military centers when the “air force” attacking you can be assembled largely from scrap and cobbled-together components, powered by a “brain” equivalent to a midrange smartphone, and launched from a parking lot? end quote from:https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/265216-think-one-military-drone-bad-drone-

Army Chief Wants Robotic Vehicles, AI for Future Battles

Army tests weapons integration on a Fire Scout at U.S. Army Yuma Proving Ground. (U.S. Army/Mark Schauer)
Army tests weapons integration on a Fire Scout at U.S. Army Yuma Proving Ground. (U.S. Army/Mark Schauer)
The U.S. Army's chief of staff said Wednesday the service's future combat vehicles and helicopters will need to serve in both manned and unmanned roles to meet commanders' needs.
Gen. Mark Milley, speaking at an Association of the United States Army's Institute of Land Warfare breakfast, fleshed out his vision for an Army of the future that depends on robotics, artificial intelligence and other cutting-edge technologies that do not yet exist.
A large part of the success the service enjoyed in the 1991 Gulf War and more recent conflicts, he said, was the result of the focused modernization vision of leaders in the 1970s that created the Army's "big five" -- the Abramstank, Bradley fighting vehicle, Apache attack helicopter, Black Hawkhelicopter, and the Patriot air defense missile system.
The service now faces a similar challenge of modernizing its major weapon systems that are quickly becoming obsolete, Milley said.
"If we, the United States military, do not recognize the need for change, and if we do not adapt and pivot to that change then, in my mind, that will be a grave strategic mistake," he said.
For months, Milley has been pushing his modernization strategy, which prioritizes long-range precision fires, next-generation combat vehicles, future vertical lift, sophisticated command network and soldier lethality.
"I am not interested in a linear progression into the future that will end up in defeat on a future battlefield," said Milley, describing the mistake of depending on incremental improvements to existing combat platforms.
"We are talking about 10X capabilities that don't physically exist in the real world right this minute, but they will," he added.
More than a decade ago, Army leaders touted the need for "leap-ahead" technology in the service's Future Combat Systems effort -- a multiyear, multibillion dollar program that consisted of 14 lightweight manned and unmanned systems tied together by an extensive communications and information network.
But the technology FCS depended on simply did not exist. The Army spent billions on FCS, only to see it fail when then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates killed the 27-ton Manned Ground Vehicles portion of FCS in the 2010 budget while criticizing the advanced design as ill-suited to survive current battlefield threats.
After the demise of FCS, Army officials quickly took aim at the Ground Combat Vehicle, an effort to replace the Bradley fighting vehicle with a technologically advanced fighting vehicle that would last far into the future.
Five years later, Congress cut most of the funding for the overweight, over-budget vehicle program in the face of mandatory budget cuts under sequestration.
Milley acknowledges the failures of FCS but maintains that the Army must embrace emerging technologies such as robotics and artificial intelligence if the service wants to keep pace with its adversaries.
"Robotics is here; it is real," he said. "We are talking about vehicles that are both manned and unmanned ... every vehicle is going to have the capability to be robotic."
Within 10 to 15 years, ground forces are going to have robotic vehicles for ground and air operations, Milley said.
"So If the commander on the ground can make an evaluation of his mission, enemy, terrain, time and troops available, and he can estimate the situation, he can make a determination as to whether he wants this assault to be manned or unmanned," he said. "Does he want to attack Hill 101 with robots or does he want to do it with manned vehicles?"
Artificial intelligence is another example of a key emerging technology that the Army must recognize, Milley said.
"Whether we like it or not, artificial intelligence is coming," he said. "I am willing to bet on it with programs and money."
In terms of decision-making, "we want capabilities in the network that are taking advantage of significant advances in information technology to include artificial intelligence", Milley said.
"I don't know if artificial intelligence is going to mean robots and machines replace humanity ... but I do know the quantum computing and some of the IT technologies that are out there today are so significant and can help you [with] rapid decision-making in complex decentralized environments -- that if we don't take advantage of that in things like the network -- then we would be fools because others are moving out quickly on that," he said.
-- Matthew Cox can be reached at matthew.cox@military.com.

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