California voters: Less Republican and white than in 2003

 

 

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California voters: Less Republican and white than in 2003

By KATHLEEN RONAYNE, Associated Press  9 hrs ago

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SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — It's a familiar refrain among California's recall watchers: 2021 is not 2003.

© Provided by Associated Press FILE — In this Aug. 30, 2021 file photo, Francisco Torres casts his ballot at the Sacramento County Registrar of Voters office in Sacramento, Calif. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is facing the second recall of a California governor since Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger unseated Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in 2003. Today's California electorate is less Republican and more Asian and Latino than it was 18 years ago, trends that favor Newsom. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)

Yes, the state again is in the middle of a recall election that could remove the Democratic governor from office. But today's California electorate looks far different than it did 18 years ago: It's less Republican, more Latino and Asian, and younger — all trends that favor Gov. Gavin Newsom, so long as he can get his voters to turn out.

© Provided by Associated Press FILE— In this Aug. 9, 2021 file photo people walk along Fisherman's Wharf in Monterey, Calif. Sept. 14 is the last day California voters can cast their ballots to either keep California Gov. Gavin Newsom or recall him and replace him with one of the nearly four dozen candidates seeking to replace him. But today's California electorate is less Republican and more Asian and Latino than it was 18 years ago, trends that favor Newsom. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)

“Newsom has always had it by the numbers, and he knows that," said Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California and an expert in voters and the electorate.

Early voting has been going on for weeks and more than 7 million ballots have been cast so far. The final day to vote is Tuesday.

There are two questions on the ballot: Should Newsom be recalled and, if so, who should replace him? If a majority wants him gone, whoever gets the most support among the 46 names on the replacement ballot will become governor. It would almost certainly be a Republican since no Democrat with political standing is running. Conservative talk radio host Larry Elder has been leading in polls.

© Provided by Associated Press California Gov. Gavin Newsom listens to a question while meeting with reporters after casting his recall ballot at a voting center in Sacramento, Calif., Friday, Sept. 10, 2021. The last day to vote in the recall election is Tuesday Sept. 14. A majority of voters must mark "no" on the recall to keep Newsom in office. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

The recall began as an effort driven by amateur Republican political organizers upset by Newsom's positions on immigration, crime and other issues. But the coronavirus pandemic, and frustrations over business and school closures, got it on the ballot.

© Provided by Associated Press FILE - In this July 13, 2021, file photo, gubernatorial candidate and radio talk show host Larry Elder speaks to supporters during a campaign stop in Norwalk, Calif. In two short months, Larry Elder emerged from the province of conservative talk radio to dominate the Republican field in the California recall election that could remove Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom from office, drawing national headlines, attracting fervent crowds to his rallies and quickly banking millions of dollars for his first campaign. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez, File)

In 2003, Democrat Gray Davis became the first California governor to get recalled. He had just begun his second term and voters were agitated over an energy crisis that had led to rolling power outages, looming tax and fee increases and a poor economy. Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger jumped into the race and won handily.

Back then, about 9 million of nearly 15 million registered voters participated in the race. Roughly 4 million backed Davis, or 44%. On the question of who should replace him, Schwarzenegger got about 4.2 million votes.

At the time, about 35% of voters were registered Republicans, 43% were Democrats and 16% weren't in a party.

Today, California has 22 million registered voters but the Republican Party claims just a quarter of the electorate because registration numbers have remained essentially flat, hovering above 5 million. Democrats, meanwhile, have added 3 million voters, and 2.6 million more people are independents.

Latino voters now make up more than a quarter of registered voters compared to 17.5% in 2003, according to data provided by Romero. Asian voters also increased their share, now at 10.4%. As those demographic groups have grown, the overall electorate is younger.

“It's not like it's Baby Boomers that are Latinos and Asian Americans moving from another state to California. These are people born and bred in this state and they are aging into the electorate," said Sonja Diaz, founding director of the Latino Policy & Politics Initiative at the University of California, Los Angeles.

© Provided by Associated Press FILE -- In this Jan. 7, 2019 file photo, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, and family waves after taking the oath office during his inauguration as the 40th Governor of California, Sacramento, Calif. With one year left in his first term as the state's chief executive, Newsom is facing the second recall of a California governor in state history. Voters recalled Democrat Gray Davis in 2003 but today's electorate is more favorable for Democrats. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)

All of those trends should benefit Democrats, who have only strengthened their hold on the state over the past two decades. Californians haven't elected a Republican to elected office since 2006, when Schwarzenegger won a second term, and Democrats today hold supermajorities in both houses of the state Legislature.

© Provided by Associated Press FILE — In this Oct. 23, 2003 file photo, Gov.-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger, left, and Gov. Gray Davis joke with each other as Davis shows Schwarzenegger the governor's private office at the Capitol in Sacramento, Calif. The two met for the first time since the voters elected Schwarzenegger to replace Gov. Gray Davis in the historic 2003 recall election. Today's California electorate is less Republican and more Asian and Latino than it was 18 years ago, trends that favor Newsom. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, File)

Though former Republican President Donald Trump increased his support among Latinos between 2016 and 2020, the Latino population still heavily favors Democrats in California, Diaz said.

But Diaz said the party can't be taking Latino voters for granted, particularly as their power as a voting bloc expands. Latinos now make up 40% of California's population of nearly 40 million people, more than any other racial or ethnic group. Yet they are less likely to vote than other groups.

Campaigns often focus on likely voters, which usually means people with a track record of participating. Though a focus on those voters certainly helps candidates win in the short term, the Democratic Party should be thinking out a long-term strategy for turning non-white voters into regular participants, Diaz said.

Recent polling shows Newsom poised to defeat the recall and early voter turnout is strong for Democrats, though neither guarantee that Newsom will win. Turnout so far among Latinos and voters 18 to 34 is disproportionately low. None of the 6 million voters in that age group were old enough to vote in the 2003 election.

Newsom has turned the race into a highly partisan one, branding the recall’s supporters as extreme Republicans in an effort to ensure the state’s Democratic voters not only stick with him, but show up to vote. He’s focused his attention on Elder, who has a libertarian bent and does not support abortion rights or the minimum wage, among other policies supported by most Californians.

Newsom, after voting Friday in Sacramento at an early vote center, said he's taking nothing for granted in the race's final days.

“I’m just focused on doing the job, encouraging folks to turn out and to get our base out at this critical juncture,” he said.