I don't necessarily agree with what he is saying here but I see the potential which is why I'm sharing this. I tend to see the market this last year as a bubble based upon the view of the 1% of investors at the very top. BUT, the market is not really composed only of the 1% at the top. It is composed in general of people who tend to be the top 50% to 100% of income both in wealth and education worldwide. And at least in the U.S. the majority of these people are Independents and Democrats by numbers because they tend to live in the larger more educated cities and suburbs of the U.S. where people tend to go to college more.

And they don't think like the 1% at all.

So, what he is saying here makes sense when you consider who most investors actually are. The 1% on top cannot really predict anything in the market because they have a somewhat alien viewpoint compared to the average investor worldwide.

It's not about who is right or who is wrong at all. It is what people believe and the problems they are dealing with every day in their lives which is going to change the market significantly.

Yellin has been replaced at the Fed. Inflation is a coming problem. Money is going to cost more and more to borrow. People are going to be taking money out of the stock market worldwide because of rising interests rates elsewhere with less ongoing risk. IN times like these most people want financial security and the stock market (for at least 1/2 of the investors) is too risky long term for them so they likely will go to other investments during these times. Not all investors are long term investors. There are many kinds of investors with significantly different problems than the upper 1%.

 

So, my point of view is we are in an over inflated bubble. The bubble isn't going to pop but some air out of the balloon is going to be released likely this year but we don't know it's air release schedule.

The person who this is the worst news for is likely Trump because likely this deflating balloon will be a part of the impetus to remove him from office within the next year or two.

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Blackstone's Tony James Sees Market Correction of 10% to 20%

Bloomberg · 2 hours ago

 

Blackstone COO: Stock market could see another 15% decline this year

CNBC · 4 hours ago

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Blackstone's Tony James Sees Market Correction of 10% to 20%

By

Devin Banerjee

February 5, 2018, 7:24 AM PST

Wells Fargo's Harvey Says Stocks Selloff Is 'Healthy Pullback'

Equity markets could fall as much as 20 percent this year, Blackstone Group LP President Tony James said.
“Every historic norm says that stocks are very, very fully valued,” James said Monday in an interview on CNBC, adding that the market decline could be 10 percent to 20 percent.
Global stocks on Monday extended the biggest selloff since 2016, with U.S. shares continuing last week’s decline and European and Asian equities falling. The slump was sparked by U.S. wage data Friday that pointed to quickening inflation, which would lead to higher rates and therefore rising borrowing costs for companies.

Tony James

Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg

The U.S. economy has been picking up for a while and further stimulus from recent tax cuts may not have been necessary, James said.
“If you’re worried about interest rates and inflation, the stimulus could be the thing that tips us over into a rate spike,” the billionaire said.
James said that in addition to investing his personal money in New York-based Blackstone’s products, he holds floating-rate senior secured debt instruments including bank loans and mortgages, which he said are yielding about 6 percent.
Blackstone last week said its fourth-quarter profit rose 4.8 percent as holdings appreciated amid widespread market gains.