Shown here are the remains of the eastern settlement, where Vikings lived for four centuries before leaving Greenland.

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The Vikings disappeared abruptly from Greenland in the mid-15th century, some 400 years after arriving there. Why they abandoned a successful settlement is a mystery that historians never have been able to fully explain.

Theories include drought, changing temperatures, social unrest, and the overhunting of walrus tusks (a cherished luxury good in medieval Europe) — conditions that would have made Norse colonies in Greenland economically nonviable.

Now, a team of researchers from Harvard University and Pennsylvania State University say they have uncovered another key factor that could explain why the Vikings fled: a rise in sea levels.

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Using a computer model based on geological and climate records, the team found that sea levels would have risen by up to 3 meters (9.8 feet) during the the four centuries of Norse occupation of the eastern settlement Vikings established in Greenland in 985 AD.

The researchers calculated that 204 square kilometers (79 square miles) of land would have been been flooded during the period the settlement was occupied, making Norse communities more vulnerable to storms and coastal erosion as they also lost fertile lowland.

The loss of habitable land would have been compounded by a trend from warmer temperatures toward cooler, drier temperatures in Europe that ultimately led to what is known as the Little Ice Age, which began around 1250 AD. A study detailing the findings published Monday in the scientific journal PNAS.

“Sea-level change is an integral, missing element of the Viking story,” said study coauthor Richard Alley, Evan Pugh University Professor of Geosciences at Penn State.

Analyses of human remains from church yards and animal remains from trash piles also showed that, over the time period, the diet of Viking settlers switched from land-based foods such as livestock to marine resources like fish and seals, the researchers noted. This change might have been due to the loss of land that was suitable for growing crops.

The idea that sea levels would have been rising as temperatures fell is a little counterintuitive, according to the researchers. Cooler global temperatures are usually associated with falling sea levels.

However, Earth’s oceans aren’t like a bathtub, and the study noted that changes in sea level don’t affect all areas equally.