Sunday, May 12, 2024

THE (solar) STORM IS OVER, BUT...

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THE STORM IS OVER, BUT... This weekend's extreme geomagnetic storm is over, but there might be a last gasp. NOAA forecasters are currently predicting a return to severe (G4) conditions on May 12th when one or more CMEs might hit Earth's magnetic field. Of particular interest is the CME from yesterday's X5.8-class flare -- a potent storm cloud that could spark renewed auroras if its internal magnetic field is oriented correctly. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

AURORAS IN FLORIDA, PUERTO RICO, MEXICO: Many people around the world have just seen auroras for the first time in their lives. This includes residents of the Florida Keys. Ron Jarrell sends this photo from Big Pine Key at latitude 24.7° N:

"The auroras were so beautiful!" says Jarrell, who needed no more than his smartphone to photograph the display.

Seeing auroras in the Florida Keys is extraordinary, but the light show didn't stop there. Sky watchers saw the sky turn red across the Carribean. These pictures were taken from the southeast coast of Puerto Rico at latitude 18.1° N:


Photo credits: (left) Carlos Rolling of Hormigueros; (right) Adriel Jarell of Cabo Rojo

"The last events on record when auroras were seen from Puerto Rico were in 1859 and 1921, so tonight was an historic event", says Eddie Irizarry from the Sociedad de Astronomia del Caribe (Astronomical Society of the Caribbean).

Auroras also appeared in Mexico. René Saade photographed the display looking north from the beach in Mazatlan, Sinaloa at latitude 23.2° N:

"This is not something you see every day--auroras and palm trees," says Saade. "Amazing!"

The low latitude of these sightings would seem to place this storm among the greatest aurora displays of the past 500 years. Stay tuned for more information on this topic when the storm is finally over a few days from now. Meanwhile sign up for aurora alerts!

Readers, did you photograph the auroras at low latitudes? Please submit your photos here.

 
Solar wind
speed: 873.4 km/sec
density: 1.51 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0714 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M9
1626 UT May12
24-hr: M9
1626 UT May12
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1920 UT
Daily Sun: 12 May 24
Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington
Giant sunspot AR3664 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 148
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 12 May 2024

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2024 total: 0 days (0%)
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Updated 12 May 2024


Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 23.09x1010 W Warm
Max: 49.4
x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05
x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation | more data: gfx, txt
Updated 11 May 2024

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 214 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 12 May 2024

Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is intensifying, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts

Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: -12.0% Low
48-hr change: -9.0%
Max: +11.7% Very High
(12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation | more data
Updated 12 May 2024 @ 0700 UT

Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2.67 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 7.33
storm
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.52 nT
Bz: 0.75 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0717 UT
Coronal Holes: 12 May 24

There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. .
Credit: SDO/AIA

Polar Stratospheric Clouds
Colorful Type II polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) form when the temperature in the stratosphere drops to a staggeringly low -85C. NASA's MERRA-2 climate model predicts when the air up there is cold enough:

On May 09, 2024, the Arctic stratosphere is much too warm for Type II polar stratospheric clouds. | more data.

Noctilucent Clouds
The southern season for NLCs is over. The first clouds were detected inside the Antarctic Circle on Dec. 4, 2023, by the NOAA 21 satellite. The same satellite detected the last cloud on Feb. 21, 2024. Daily maps are now blank:

noctilucent clouds
Updated: Feb 22, 2024

An instrument onboard NOAA 21 (OMPS LP) is able to detect NLCs (also known as "polar mesospheric clouds" or PMCs). Now that the southern season has ended, attention turns to the northern hemisphere. The first NLCs should appear inside the Arctic Circle in mid to late May.

SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2024 May 11 2200 UTC
FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
95 %
95 %
CLASS X
75 %
75 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2024 May 11 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes

0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
15 %
MINOR
40 %
35 %
SEVERE
55 %
55 %
High latitudes

0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
01 %
01 %
MINOR
05 %
05 %
SEVERE
95 %
95 %
 
Sunday, May. 12, 2024
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