| Wall Street Journal | - |
One
of the few things Hillary Clinton has going for her is that she's
inevitable. But for how long? She will win the Democratic presidential
nomination barring the unlikely event that we still live in a country
governed by the rule of law.
ENLARGE
Trump in Spokane, Wash., Saturday.
Photo:
Associated Press
Quinnipiac is out with its latest swing-state poll, which “focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states”—to which one might add, including at least one of Ohio.
The good news for Mrs. Clinton is she is competitive in all three states. The bad news is she’s supposed to be rolling over Donald Trump nationwide, and therefore in swing states. If confident Democrats and Nevertrump Republicans were right, Mrs. Clinton would be merely competitive in states like Mississippi and Utah and up by double digits in the swings.
Instead, she leads Trump by a single percentage point in Florida (43% to 42%) and Pennsylvania (also 43% to 42%) and is behind by four points in Ohio (43% to 39%).
The usual caveats apply: It’s just one poll, and it’s only May. Maybe this survey will turn out to be an outlier, or Trump will say something outrageous and self-destruct. (OK, we’re just kidding about “self-destruct.”) We saw at least one Nevertrump tweet this morning referring to “Trump’s inevitable failure,” so this poll alone probably won’t quiet that sort of talk.
George Bennett of the Palm Beach Post notes on Twitter that Quinnipiac had John McCain and Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama, by four points and one point respectively, at this point in their election year, and Obama ended up carrying the Sunshine State both times. But the conventional wisdom has been that Trump’s loss to Mrs. Clinton is not only certain but likely to be by a considerably bigger margin even than McCain’s defeat. This poll suggests a close contest, although of course it does not guarantee it (to either candidate).
As Twitchy notes, some critics are questioning the demographic makeup of the poll sample. Here are two consecutive tweets from political scientist Alan Abramowitz:
Q Poll Ohio sample is 4 pts. more white than 2012 Ohio exit poll; PA sample is 3 pts. more white and FL sample is 2 pts. more white. Q poll swing state samples show smaller Hispanic and black electorates in 2016--this is highly unlikely.But why is it unlikely? Minority turnout surged when Barack Obama was the Democratic nominee; one would expect some regression toward the mean when a white lady takes his place. Perhaps aversion to Trump (or simple anti-orange prejudice) will keep turnout high, but that is at best an untested hypothesis. Our own intuition—admittedly, another untested hypothesis—is that intellectual types, put off by Trump’s vulgarity, tend to overestimate the breadth of intense aversion to him.
To be sure, the Quinnipiac poll is generally consistent with others that find Trump with high “unfavorables.” But not only does he do somewhat better here; his unfavorables are slightly lower than Mrs. Clinton’s, except in Florida, where the numbers are exactly the same:
Florida:
Trump 37% favorable, 57% unfavorable
Mrs. Clinton 37% favorable, 57% unfavorable
Ohio:
Trump 36% favorable, 57% unfavorable
Mrs. Clinton 34% favorable, 62% unfavorable
Pennsylvania:
Trump 39% favorable, 55% unfavorable
Mrs. Clinton 37% favorable, 58% unfavorable
It may be—though again, let’s flag this as pure speculation—that Trump has more room for improvement here than Mrs. Clinton does. Whereas she’s been known as a political figure for a quarter-century, he is still a novelty (if a famous one). And his favorability ratings among Republicans were under water at the start of the primary campaign. He vastly improved them despite (read because of) his bizarre and unorthodox campaign.
There’s a sign of potential trouble for Mrs. Clinton with another part of the Obama coalition. In Ohio, “the age gap narrows as voters 18 to 34 years old go 43 percent for Clinton and 39 percent for Trump, while voters over 65 go 46 percent for Trump and 40 percent for Clinton.” (The press release doesn’t give the age breakdown of the other states.)
Young voters tend to be more Democratic than older ones, but in the Obama years that trend was heightened. In Ohio in 2012 exit polls found Obama beat Romney 63% to 35% with the under-30 set. That’s a 28-point margin, vs. Mrs. Clinton’s four-point margin in the Quinnipiac poll.
Of even more interest is this finding, described by Peter Brown, assistant director of the poll:
“This election may be good for divorce lawyers. The gender gap is massive and currently benefits Trump,” Brown added. “In Pennsylvania, Clinton’s 19-point lead among women matches Trump’s 21-point margin among men. In Ohio, she is up 7 points among women but down 15 points with men. In Florida she is up 13 points among women but down 13 points among men.”You hardly ever hear about the “gender gap” benefiting anyone but the candidate women favor more than men do (pretty much always the Democrat). But this column has long speculated that male voters would have an aversion to Mrs. Clinton—most recently for her boast that “I have a lot of experience dealing with men who sometimes get off the reservation in the way they behave and how they speak.” (Imagine if a male candidate said that about women!)
Democrats, however, are right on top of the problem, as the Hill reports:
Democrats are openly hoping that Hillary Clinton will pick Elizabeth Warren as her running mate.
Amid concerns that supporters of Bernie Sanders will choose to stay home on Election Day, a number of Democrats see a Clinton-Warren alliance as an all-woman dream team that could ignite deep enthusiasm in the progressive base and make the 2016 Democratic presidential ticket truly historic.
It would also eliminate the pro-Wall Street storyline that has haunted Clinton’s campaign throughout the primary season, Clinton allies believe.
Democratic strategist and presidential campaign veteran Jamal Simmons said the longer Sanders stays in the race, the more likely Clinton will select Warren.
“I think so more every day,” he said. “[Warren] solves so many problems: enthusiasm, women, young liberals, older white liberals.”But would she help Mrs. Clinton with her male problem? Maybe. Warren is a native of Oklahoma, where there are no reservations.
Other Than That, the Story Was Accurate
“Because of an editing error, an article on Monday about a theological battle being fought by Muslim imams and scholars in the West against the Islamic State misstated the Snapchat handle used by Suhaib Webb, one of [sic] Muslim leaders speaking out. It is imamsuhaibwebb, not Pimpin4Paradise786.”—New York Times, May 10
We Blame George W. Bush
- “The Reasons Americans Want to Move to Canada Are the Reasons It’s Really Hard to Do It”—headline, Vox, May 9
- “Media Blames Canadian Forest Fires on Global Warming”—headline, Daily Caller, May 9
- “Trump Attacks ‘Crooked’ Clinton, GOP Establishment”—headline, Washington Examiner, May 9
- “Speaker Paul Ryan Looking Forward to ‘Straight Conversation’ With Donald Trump”—headline, ABCNews.com, May 9
- “Buffalo Prepares for Trump Rally”—headline, WKBW-TV website (Buffalo, N.Y.), April 17
- “The Good News Is Congress Passed a Bill. The Bad News Is It’s About Bison.”—headline, Puffington Host, May 9
- “Ted Cruz: Trump Would Be Trainwreck and California Will Decide the Race”—headline, Patch.com (Newport Beach/Corona del Mar), April 11
- “Hyperloop Super-Fast Rail to Hit Milestone”—headline, Yahoo! Tech, May 10
- “Donald Trump Still Isn’t the Future of the Republican Party: Why Ted Cruz Could Still Leave His Slimy Imprint on the GOP of Tomorrow”—headline, Salon, May 10
- “North Korean General Reported Executed Is Apparently Still Alive”—headline, MarketWatch.com, May 9
- “6 Money Lessons I Learned Working as a Corn Detasseler”—headline, WiseBread.com, May 9
- “Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Eat Corn off a Power Drill”—headline, Puffington Host, May 9
“It’s Time for L.A. to Follow Santa Monica’s Lead in Regulating Tobacco in Apartment Buildings”—headline, Los Angeles Times, May 9
Question and Answer—I
- “How Jon Stewart Became One of America’s Realest Leaders”—headline, Washington Post, Feb. 11, 2015
- “Jon Stewart: Trump Is a ‘Man-Baby’ With a Baby’s ‘Temperament and Hands’ ”—headline, Talking Points Memo, May 9
- “Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton—or Door No. 3?”—headline, Chicago Tribune, May 10
- “Tune Into Miracle Theatre’s Zonk FM”—headline, West Briton (Cornwall), Feb. 29
- “Are We Near an Imminent Banana Crisis?”—headline, SpendMatters.com, May 9
- “China Bans ‘Erotic’ Videos of Women Eating Bananas Online”—headline, FoxNews.com, May 9
- “Is It Legal to Put Your Feet on the Dashboard?”—headline, Yahoo! Answers, July 4, 2011
- “Alligator Foot in Dashboard Leads to Citation”—headline, WESH-TV website (Orlando, Fla.), May 9
- “Kobe Bryant Says He Loves to Write: Future Career?”—headline, CNN.com, May 4
- “Kobe Opening Extrusion, Fabrication Plant in Bowling Green”—headline, Associated Press, May 10
“State Dept: We Still Can’t Find Any E-Mails From Hillary’s Personal IT Tech; Update: One Found”—headline, HotAir.com, May 9
Breaking News From Genesis 3:19
“Respecting the Earth, Even in Death: Seattle Architect Proposes Human Composting”—headline, Seattle Times, May 8
Bottom Story of the Day
“Garland to Send Senate His Supreme Court Questionnaire”—headline, TheHill.com, May 9
No More Pencils, No More Books
Poor David Brooks of the New York Times has become so dispirited by Trump-era American politics that he’s given up writing about the topic in favor of abstract chin-strokers. Today he takes as his subject “the G.P.A. ethos”—i.e., schools’ overemphasis on grade-point averages. Brooks writes:
Creative people are good at asking new questions, but the G.P.A. rewards those who can answer other people’s questions. The modern economy rewards those who can think in ways computers can’t, but the G.P.A. rewards people who can grind away at mental tasks they find boring. People are happiest when motivated intrinsically, but the G.P.A. is the mother of all extrinsic motivations.He may well be right. When we were in school, we never worried much about our GPA, and the subject never even interested us enough to merit mention in our column, until it provided us with an opportunity for a cheap chuckle at Brooks’s expense. In case you’re not already chuckling, here’s the proposal with which he concludes his column:
Suppose you were designing a school to help students find their own clear end—as clear as that one. Say you were designing a school to elevate and intensify longings. Wouldn’t you want to provide examples of people who have intense longings? Wouldn’t you want to encourage students to be obsessive about worthy things? Wouldn’t you discuss which loves are higher than others and practices that habituate them toward those desires? Wouldn’t you be all about providing students with new subjects to love?Sounds like a perfect job for unionized teachers.
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(Carol Muller helps compile Best of the Web. Thanks to R. Dawson, Jackie Harty, Tony Lima, Irene DeBlasio, Miguel Rakiewicz, Jeff Bliss, James Glendon, Ruhama Shattan, Melanie Hildreth, Debbie Wells, Ethel Fenig, Norman Blanton, Mark Nicholas, Michael Smith, Wes Van Fleet, David Rolfe, Bryan Fischer, Abraham Oseroff, Tim Ward, Jeryl Bier, Richard O’Conor and Mike Lavender. If you have a tip, write us at opinionjournal@wsj.com, and please include the URL.)
There are 302 comments.
There
really is not much new in the emprical data and the trends these
suggests that we are seeing now. Trump surged in the polls at the onset
of the nominating process. That stage is past and he has moved in the
pre-Convention/opening salvo of the general election phase. And, guess
what, once again, he is surging in the polls, catching up to HC and
surpassing her in some cases.
The only ones surprised by this are......... the Establishment -- in politics and with the sterling exception of the Admiral, media entities such as the WSJ editorial and news pages.
The only ones surprised by this are......... the Establishment -- in politics and with the sterling exception of the Admiral, media entities such as the WSJ editorial and news pages.
I can't believe Hillary is warning about a loose cannon in the Oval Office. I guess she thinks a pea shooter is OK.
It's an occupational hazard. NYT journalists don't grind away gathering facts and their writing is very creative.
She will win the Democratic presidential nomination barring the unlikely event
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I may be an in the minority since I believe she will be indicted - having had a security clearance before, and know a little about the professional intelligence community, having her walk is unacceptable to them. My hypothesis, granted 'admittedly, another untested hypothesis' is behind closed doors the administration is figuring out how far the damage goes (anyone sending or receiving an Clinton email broke the law). I'm thinking it will come after the convention when Clinton is nominated and the DNC/Adminstration can name their own candidate - doing it before puts Sanders in the drivers seat.
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I may be an in the minority since I believe she will be indicted - having had a security clearance before, and know a little about the professional intelligence community, having her walk is unacceptable to them. My hypothesis, granted 'admittedly, another untested hypothesis' is behind closed doors the administration is figuring out how far the damage goes (anyone sending or receiving an Clinton email broke the law). I'm thinking it will come after the convention when Clinton is nominated and the DNC/Adminstration can name their own candidate - doing it before puts Sanders in the drivers seat.
Hillary: " I have a lot of experience dealing with men who sometimes get off the reservation.....”
Warren's reply: "How"
(Mrs. JF)
Warren's reply: "How"
(Mrs. JF)
