- Obama scores another victory: Unemployment rate falls to 7.8 percent, hiring continuesnatmonitor.com - 1 day agoAccording to the latest unemployment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 155,000 in ...
Obama scores another victory: Unemployment rate falls to 7.8 percent, hiring continues
National Monitor, Mike Mitchell | January 05, 2013
The latest unemployment report is out and the Obama administration can chalk up another victory in the fight against rising unemployment in the U.S.
According to the latest unemployment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 155,000 in December, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 7.8 percent. Employment increased in health care, food services and drinking places, construction, and manufacturing, according to the agency, and will likely be welcomed by congressional Democrats and the White House.
Household Survey Data
The number of unemployed persons, at 12.2 million, was little changed in December, according to agency officials. The unemployment rate held at 7.8 percent and has been at or near that level since September, making it the fourth month in which the nation as added just under 200,000 jobs. In December, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 4.8 million and accounted for 39.1 percent of the unemployed. The civilian labor force participation rate held at 63.6 percent in December. The employment-population ratio, at 58.6 percent, was essentially unchanged over the month, Labor officials said.
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons remained steady at 7.9 million. According to the report, in December 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force. (These individuals are not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the four weeks preceding the survey.)
Establishment Survey Data
The latest unemployment report found that a number of sectors continue to add jobs despite consumer pessimism. According to the Labor Department, health care employment continued to expand in December, adding 45,000 jobs. Job gains also occurred in ambulatory health care services and in hospitals, which added an estimated 50,000 jobs. In December, employment in food services and drinking places also rose by 38,000, making it the second largest provider of jobs in December.
Construction added 30,000 jobs in December, led by employment increases in construction of buildings and in residential specialty trade contractors. In December, manufacturing employment rose by 25,000, with small gains in a number of component industries.
Among the biggest disappointments were the numbers relating to seasonal employment. Employment in retail trade changed little in December, after increasing by 143,000 over the prior three months. Within the industry, employment in clothing and accessories stores fell by 19,000, following gains that totaled 55,000 over the prior three months.
Meanwhile, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised from 138,000 to 137,000, and the change for November was revised upwards from 146,000 to 161,000.
White House, Democrats Responds
White House officials responded to Friday’s report, saying that while the report was the latest sign of success, sound economic policies must continue to be pursued by members of Congress.
“While more work remains to be done, today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to heal from the wounds inflicted by the worst downturn since the Great Depression,” said Alan B. Krueger, the White House Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. “It is critical that we continue the policies that are building an economy that works for the middle class as we dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession that began in December 2007.”
White House officials warned that lawmakers on Capitol Hill should not attempt to use the report as the latest excuse to play politics.
“As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and payroll employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision,” wrote Krueger. “Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.”
The report was also welcomed by top congressional Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. The California Democrat used the opportunity to urge Republican lawmakers to focus on the middle class and pass legislation promoting private sector jobs.
“Today’s jobs report shows our economy continues to create private sector jobs, and with the start of the 113th Congress, we have an opportunity for a new beginning to work together to strengthen our middle class and small businesses and grow our economy,” said the California Democrat.
Congressional Action and the Debt Ceiling Fight
Among the biggest hurdles facing the economy include the upcoming fight to raise the nation’s borrowing limit. Top Republicans have vowed to battle President Obama on the issue, saying they will request steep spending cuts in social programs in return.
“When I first ran for Congress, I said that Washington was broken. Unfortunately, that is still the case. The Senate deal fails to bring any meaningful solution to reign in government spending or reduce the budget deficit,” said Minnesota Congressman Erik Paulsen, a Republican. “At a time when Washington borrows 46-cents on every dollar it spends, we need a long term solution to cut spending and fundamentally reform our outdated tax code.”
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Obama scores another victory: Unemployment rate falls to 7.8 percent, hiring continue
On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the jobless tally dipped in September to 7.8 percent, its lowest level since January 2009. That was down from 8.1 percent in the month-earlier report.
President Barack Obama's camp hailed the news as compelling evidence of the commander-in-chief's ability to move the economy in the right direction. The economy is moving in the right direction, ever so slowly.
Challenger Mitt Romney pointed out that job creation remains weak. It is weak. Struggling employers managed to add just 114,000 jobs in September.
We've heard a lot about percentages during the presidential campaign — the 47 percent, the 1 percent. So it should come as no surprise that "7.8 percent" instantly became a political football. There were even suggestions that the Bureau of Labor Statistics was cooking the books. How else to explain a modest job increase coupled with a sudden, significant decline in the unemployment rate?
There's a plausible explanation. The monthly unemployment report combines two different surveys, one of households and one of employers. The unemployment rate is derived from the often-volatile household survey. The results unveiled Friday showed an unexpected surge of 873,000 people working, far outpacing a 418,000 increase in the size of the labor force — the number of people working or looking for work. When the number of jobs soars and the size of the labor force increases by a lesser amount, it pushes the unemployment rate down.
One surprise buried in the numbers was a 415,000 increase in the employment of 16- to 24-year-olds during September, according to an analysis by the independent Capital Economics research firm in London. That reversed a 427,000 decrease in employment among that same category of younger workers during August. It may indicate that more youngsters left their summer jobs earlier this year than the Labor Department's seasonal adjustments accounted for. That's more or less a quirk in the data. It's not a big deal. All it means is that the September figures caught up with a slight improvement in the labor market.
The volatility in the household numbers contrasts with the more stable, larger survey of employers, which is the basis for the job creation figure of 114,000. The more encouraging part of the report was an upward revision in the number of jobs created in July and August, which suggested that the jobs slump this past summer wasn't as deep as previous reports suggested. America's jobs engine is bumping along a little more steadily than economists might have thought. It's hardly robust, though.
This was a modestly positive report — period.
There is one more employment report — on Nov. 2 — before the Nov. 6 election. Yes, it will have an impact on one job based at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. But for the sake of the millions of unemployed Americans, here's hoping that it shows what a real recovery looks like.
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