Sunday, April 24, 2011

If the U.S. defaults

begin quote.
The government now borrows about 42 cents of every dollar it spends. Imagine that one day soon, the borrowing slams up against the current debt limit ceiling of $14.3 trillion and Congress fails to raise it. The damage would ripple across the entire economy, eventually affecting nearly every American, and rocking global markets in the process. end quote.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110424/ap_on_re_us/us_government_default_what_if

If Tea Party Republicans have their way the U.S. Government will be in default. Though the ramifications of a real default could end the tea party for good, the U.S. will have to live with the default for as long as any nations that have loaned the U.S. money remember it.

As I see it the real problem is more that no nation that I can remember in my lifetime as big as the U.S. has ever defaulted on their loans. The best example of defaults are the full default of Argentina, and Mexico in the 1980s and the partial default of Brazil. But I can't remember any nation as large as the U.S. defaulting. And the result likely would be to throw the whole world into something more severe than the Great Depression. This would be the likely outcome at present of the U.S. actually defauting on its debts.

However, the other way to look at this is what happens when homeowners go underwater on their mortgages. Many simply realized there was no way they ever would get out from under and into the black again on their books. So they simply walked away.

However, when  nation walks away like this it could start a war, a real one. So that is a possible consequence as well because of the sheer size of the U.S. and its debt of 42 cents on the dollar.

So, the U.S. going into default would be much different than Argentina, Mexico or Brazil because of our size. And would anyone ever trust us again. And would we start a war because of defaulting? I don't have the answers to any of these questions. I just know I'm asking the right questions. And from college and after I know that if you ask the right questions, usually the answers to those questions will save you a lot of problems in your life.

So, if I were to envision what it would look like it would be like a family jumping off a cliff into the ocean. And the questions would be: how warm is the water? Where are the rocks? How many of us might survive? Do we really want to do this?

Yes. I think jumping off a cliff into the ocean and wondering how many Americans would survive  this jump would be the right question here.

By the way when Mexico and Argentina defaulted the end result was the collapse of the Savings and Loans in the U.S. who were financing these nations. Many in the U.S. lost their life savings because FDIC I don't think covered Savings and loans and many over 50 died or committed suicide as a result in the U.S.  It is likely that the U.S. defaulting will cost many lives in China and Europe and throughout the world because of the size of the U.S. and make the U.S. many more enemies than it has already.

No comments: