Friday, August 15, 2014

Dual Threat Has Mainstream Syrian Rebels Fearing Demise

Dual Threat Has Mainstream Syrian Rebels Fearing Demise

New York Times - ‎35 minutes ago‎
The dual advance is on the verge of dealing a potentially fatal blow to mainstream Syrian insurgents, leaving them besieged in the city while ISIS, a group deemed too extreme even by Al Qaeda, faces the Syrian government across a crucial front line at ...
The Rebels Are Gaining Ground in Syria
Syria crisis: Islamic State fighters seize Aleppo towns
Syrian forces, Islamic militants encircling key rebel city of Aleppo

Dual Threat Has Mainstream Syrian Rebels Fearing Demise

Facing Both ISIS Militants and Bashar al-Assad’s Forces in Syria



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The site of a reported attack by government forces on Wednesday in Aleppo, Syria. Credit Zein Al-Rifai/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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BEIRUT, Lebanon — Far from being depleted by its recent sweep into Iraq, the extremist Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is pressing deeper into Syria, regaining territory it had lost to the mainstream Syrian insurgents just as the Syrian Army has come within five miles of encircling the insurgent-held section of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city.
The dual advance is on the verge of dealing a potentially fatal blow to mainstream Syrian insurgents, leaving them besieged in the city while ISIS, a group deemed too extreme even by Al Qaeda, faces the Syrian government across a crucial front line at the city and surrounding province of Aleppo, the linchpin of northern Syria.



The developments, some of the most strategically important in Syria’s three-year war, come as the American military for the first time strikes ISIS fighters in Iraq. The United States says it aims to prevent massacres of Iraqi civilians, but apparently has no plans to strike the group in Syria, where it incubated into perhaps the world’s most dangerous Islamist extremist group.


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Iraqis Driven From Their Homes by ISIS
Published August 14
The United Nations estimates that militants with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria have forced nearly 180,000 families — or more than a million people — from their homes in Iraq. The exodus roughly breaks down into three phases. Related Maps and Multimedia »

January 1 to May 31

Over 151 days, 540 families, on average, were displaced daily.
BaghdadAnbar ProvinceFalluja
Anbar Province
321,210 families known displaced
Months before it became something of a household name, ISIS took control of much of Anbar Province, displacing an estimated 500,000 Iraqis.

June 1 to July 31

Over 61 days, 1,341 families, on average, were displaced daily.
BaghdadMosulTikrit
Anbar Province
321,210 families known displaced
Another half-million Iraqis were displaced in June and July when ISIS captured Mosul and advanced south toward Baghdad.

August 1 to August 6

Over 6 days, 2,137 families, on average, were displaced daily.
BaghdadSinjar
Anbar Province
321,210 families known displaced
In early August, ISIS seized several towns under Kurdish control, displacing Yazidis, Christians and other religious minority groups. Although the United Nations says that the capture of Sinjar may have displaced as many as 33,000 families, that number is not yet included in the official data.
Note: The United Nations estimates one Iraqi family is equal to six individuals. Source: IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix

That seeming contradiction highlights the messy snarl of conflicts sweeping the region: The United States now views ISIS as a global threat, a position that places America notionally on both sides of the bitter conflict in Syria, where both the insurgents and the government claim to be fighting the group.
While most analysts say there is no proof the Syrian government controls or is formally aligned with ISIS, as some rebels allege, many observers, including those sympathetic to the government, say it has not attacked the group as forcefully as it has the insurgents. That, they say, is because ISIS focuses less on ousting President Bashar al-Assad than on establishing an Islamic state in areas it controls, and battles Islamist and nationalist insurgents bent on his removal. Beheadings and other atrocities by ISIS also bolster the government’s argument that it is fighting terrorism.
Syrian insurgents in Aleppo say they are on the verge of a defeat that could effectively end their fight to unseat Mr. Assad. Rebel villages in northern Aleppo have fallen in recent days to a new ISIS offensive that threatens to cut off their supply lines to Turkey. Some insurgents have joined ISIS rather than fight it, either to save themselves from beheadings or out of frustration that their own leaders have been unable to secure weapons and money.
In Aleppo, insurgents are bracing for a siege like the two-year standoff that obliterated much of the center of Homs in central Syria, and ended last May when starved rebels accepted a government deal to evacuate. Insurgent leaders say about 500,000 civilians, mainly those too poor or sick to flee, remain in rebel-held Aleppo from a population of several million before the war, along with fighters’ families and supporters.
Struggling Western-backed insurgents express frustration that the United States has not aided them as allies against both ISIS and Mr. Assad, while some of their rank and file blame the leadership.
For three years, leaders of the rebel group Free Syrian Army complain, they have pleaded for increased military aid and humanitarian corridors to protect against government airstrikes — more than 2,000 in the past three months in Aleppo alone — that have killed and displaced countless Syrian civilians. They have received only a modest response, even recently as they battle ISIS.
“Obama cannot stop ISIS by just hitting them in Iraq,” Hussam al-Marie, the Free Syrian Army spokesman for northern Syria, said in an interview from southern Turkey. He said that ISIS’ core refuges and resources are in Syria, where the group has long ruled the northeasten province of Raqqa and recently took control of neighboring Deir al-Zour.
“The noose is tightening around Aleppo, and everyone is just watching,” Mr. Marie said, adding that the loss of the city would be “unrecoverable” and “a blow to our shared goals of a moderate Syria.”
He recalled President Obama’s declaration that America was “coming to help,” with airlifted supplies and airstrikes, in response to the cries of Iraq’s threatened Yazidi minority.
“Millions of Syrians have been crying, but no one has heard them,” he said, adding that 8,000 Syrians were displaced by ISIS advances on Wednesday alone, and hundreds of thousands more by government attacks.
Parallel complaints can be heard from some residents in government-held Aleppo, home to a large Christian community. Some of them ask why the United States is defending Iraqi Yazidis from religiously motivated ISIS attacks, but not them.
At the same time, some Syrian insurgents blame their own leadership for what they see as impending doom.


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Interactive Graphic

A Rogue State Along Two Rivers

The victories gained by the militant group calling itself the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria were built on months of maneuvering along the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, which define a region known as the cradle of civilization.
OPEN Interactive Graphic

“They failed politically,” Abu al-Hassan, a longtime spokesman for a rebel brigade in Marea, north of Aleppo, said as the town came under ISIS shelling on Thursday. “We don’t have central command, whereas ISIS has central command and an ideology.”
The crisis was a long time coming. For months, as government troops inched toward Aleppo, insurgent leaders failed to provide the province’s many rebel groups, large and small, with a unified strategy, money or weapons.
Aleppo has long stood as a symbol of both the strengths and the weaknesses of the insurgency. Rebel groups like the Tawhid Brigade surprised the government by taking over eastern Aleppo two years ago.


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