Italian
Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and his wife, Agnese Landini, vote in a
referendum on constitutional reforms on Sunday. Claudio ... The Italian
national flag hangs from a window ahead of the referendum in
Pontassieve, Italy. Chris Ratcliffe ...
Italy Votes In Referendum With Matteo Renzi’s Future At Stake
The PM has promised to resign if he loses.
12/04/2016 07:36 am ET
Stefano Rellandini / Reuters
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi leads a news conference to mark his
1000 days in government in Rome, Italy, November 18, 2016.
Italians started to vote on
Sunday in a referendum on constitutional reform which will decide the
political future of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who has promised to
resign if he loses.
Financial markets and Europe’s politicians fear victory for the
opposition ‘No’ camp could trigger political instability and renewed
turmoil for Italy’s battered banks, pushing the euro zone towards a
fresh crisis.
Polls opened at 7 a.m. (0600 GMT), with about 51 million Italians
eligible to vote on Renzi’s plan to drastically reduce the role of the
upper house Senate and claw back powers from regional authorities.
With all the opposition parties lined up against the reform, a
victory for Renzi would be a surprise and represent an enormous personal
triumph for Italy’s youngest prime minister who often appeared to be
fighting the campaign single-handed.
All surveys published in the month before a blackout was imposed on
Nov. 18 put the ‘No’ camp ahead. Private polls have continued to be
conducted in the last two weeks and bookmakers say ‘No’ remains the
clear favorite to win.
However, in the final days of frenetic campaigning Renzi insisted the
public mood was changing, focusing his attention on the millions of
Italians who said they were undecided.
Pippo Nicosia, a stall-holder at Campo dei Fiori market in central
Rome, said he would vote ‘Yes’ but had no doubt about the result. “’No’
will win, everything will collapse so we might as well all go on
holiday,” he said. TURNOUT
Turnout, expected at between 50 and 60 percent, could be crucial.
Pollsters say lower participation could favor Renzi, as hostility to his
reform is strongest among young voters and those in the poor south,
segments of the population that often don’t bother to vote.
A turnout above 60 percent could also make the result more
unpredictable, as it would suggest many voters who said they planned to
abstain ended up going to the polls.
With bookmakers’ odds suggesting a roughly 75 percent chance of a win
for ‘No’, speculation is rife on what Renzi will do in the event of
defeat.
He is widely expected to resign and has said he will play no role in
any unelected, “technical” government, which President Sergio Mattarella
may try to put in place. Some of his allies have urged him to stay in
power regardless of the result.
The result of exit polls will be announced as soon as voting ends and
the count begins at 11 p.m. After around 30 minutes, the first
projections of the result will be announced on the basis of actual votes
counted.
If the result is not close, the winner could be clear after the
second projection, some time between midnight and 1 a.m. (0000 GMT). In a
very close race, the winner may not be known until the count is
completed, probably between 2 and 3 a.m.
Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan sought to calm nervous markets on
Friday, saying there was “no risk of a financial earthquake” if ‘No’
wins, though there may be “48 hours of turbulence”.
Market jitters have concentrated on Italy’s banks, saddled with 360
billion euros ($380 billion) of bad loans, and most specifically on
Monte Dei Paschi di Siena, its oldest and third largest lender.
The bank needs to raise 5 billion euros ($5.3 billion) by the end of
the year to plug a capital shortfall or risk being wound down.
Government officials say potential investors may be deterred by
political instability if ‘No’ should win. (Additional reporting by Gabriele Pileri; Editing by Janet Lawrence and Giulia Segreti)
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