Monday, December 19, 2016

The Era of American Global Leadership is Over

Here is what comes next: quote from The View in the latest time magazine with the baby on the cover of January 2nd 2017:
by Ian Bremmer
Begin quote:
As in the past, the day will be cold.Melania will hold the Bible. the kids will stand by proudly. The new President will recite his lines carefully, smile broadly and change history. And American international leadership, a constant since 1945, will end with the presidential inauguration of Donald J. Trump on January 20th 2017.

That's not because Trump is bound to fail where his predecessors have succeeded. Given the rise of other countries with enough power to shrug off U.S. pressure-- and other factors, like the ability of smaller powers to punch above their weight in cyberspace--this moment was inevitable. America will remain the sole superpower for the foreseeable future--only the U.S. can project military muscle, economic clout and cultural influence into every region of the world. But Trump's election marks and irreversable break with the past, one with global implications.

For at least the next 4 years, America's interactions with other nations will be guided not by the conviction that U.S. Leadership is good for America and the world but by Trump's transactional approach. This will force friends and foes alike to question every assumption they've made about what Washington will and will not do. Add more assertive China and Russia to the greater willingness of traditional U.S. allies to hedge their bets on American plans and it's clear that we've reached a turning point. Trump is not an isolationist, but he's certainly a unilateralist, and a proudly selfish one. Even if he wanted to engage the G-7 or G-8 or G-20 to get things done--and he doesn't--it has become unavoidably obvious that the transition toward a leaderless world is now complete. The G-zero-era I first predicted nearly six years ago is now fully upon us. NO matter how long Trump remains in the White House, a crucial line has been crossed. The fallout will outlive his presidency, because Trump has proved that tens of millions of Americans like this idea.

End partial quote from Ian Bremmer's article.

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