Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Economics of "Phase Shifts"

Someone sent me an email with this information. I cannot vouch for it but it sounded plausible so I thought I would share it. This next paragraph is a quote from this piece.
Begin quote.


"I am referring to what is known as phase shifts, when a situation worsens
abruptly, not gradually, and transforms into a different state, like an
avalanche," Maslov told the daily. "Such processes are well known in
physics, and are laid out in formulas of mathematical physics. They can also
be applied to economics."
end quote.
The following is what was sent me in total.
Begin quotes
Russian mathematician 'calculated' crisis, prepared for it

MOSCOW, March 12 (RIA Novosti) - A prominent mathematician, known for his
accurate predictions on Russia's 1998 financial crisis and the breakup of
the U.S.S.R., 'calculated' the current credit crunch and prepared for it,
Russia's government daily said on Thursday.

Viktor Maslov, a member of Russia's Academy of Sciences, who helped make
calculations for a protective shelter over the Chernobyl nuclear power plant
reactor after the 1986 disaster, said the processes now taking place in
economics are similar to certain phenomena in physics, Rossiiskaya Gazeta
reported.

"I am referring to what is known as phase shifts, when a situation worsens
abruptly, not gradually, and transforms into a different state, like an
avalanche," Maslov told the daily. "Such processes are well known in
physics, and are laid out in formulas of mathematical physics. They can also
be applied to economics."

"Whether a crisis will break out or not, and even when this will happen, can
be predicted," he told the paper.

Maslov said he had sold his apartment and country house in the summer, and
sent the money to his children living abroad, advising them on how to invest
it to survive the crisis.

Asked what advice he has for the administration of the United States, where
the crisis originated, Maslov said they should not rescue large banks whose
debts have long exceeded the "critical level," but focus on helping smaller
banks that service individuals.

However, he was short on recommendations for Russia: "Our economy is too
closed, and a large share of it is a shadow economy. It is therefore
impossible to calculate critical figures and have a clear picture."
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090312/120535555.html

Probably the main problem this mathematician has in terms of Russian economy
concerns the fast-growing credit derivatives trade which is such a key
opaque drama in the West. -rp

For 2006 the derivative trading for Russia was apparently at 183 billion
pounds sterling (probably notional value) on London Exchange.
http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cache:m5J9U0B5faYJ:omxnordicexchange.com/digitalAssets/13/13961_Press_release_Russian_derivatives.pdf+derivatives+trade+russia&cd=38&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
endquote.

After reading this I felt I should share this information as it might be plausible. If any of you are familiar with the mathematics of "Phase shifts" applied to economics then I believe applying these ideas mathematically to what America and the world are presently experiencing might be useful to the survival of humans on earth in all nations.

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