Sunday, August 10, 2014

Obama's and NATO's strategy in Iraq

The single most important thing to say here is: "There is NO long term military solution to what is happening in Iraq".

However, there is a potential political solution to the problems there now being caused by the Islamic State.

First of all, "How is the Islamic state funded?"

It is funded by extortion and murder of whatever areas they take over and by contributions from the 10 to 11 million Sunnis who are as extreme or almost as extreme in their viewpoint as the Islamic state is. These Sunnis live all around the world.

However, this should not be surprising to Christians around the world because extremist Fundamentalist Christians often join Militias and buy AK-47s or AR-15's and become proficient with an assault rifle or more. Eventually, those extremist Christians often wind up in jail or dead because of the U.S. Government or whatever country they live in on earth has had enough of their extremism.

Basically, the 10 to 11 million Sunni Muslim Extremists are similar to these extremist Christian fundamentalists who get too crazy and governments have to deal with them to keep the peace for the rest of us.

The Islamic State is presently a group of extremist Sunni Muslim Fundamentalists from around the world.

They are there primarily because of what Russia, Iran, and Assad has done to Sunnis in Syria for the last 4 years. They have tortured them, killed them, buried them alive, firebombed them with barrel bombs, raped them, tortured children to death etc.

So, you can see why the 10 or 11 million friends and relatives or distant cousins of these people want revenge. It is very understandable.

However, then we have Maliki's government in Iraq being a Shia fundamentalist government which excludes all minorities from the government. This caused the Sunnis in Western Iraq to cause the abandonment of weapons of the Iraqi army in Northern Iraq along with most of the up armored humvees there and all their weapons. The soldiers found out that if they didn't run that the Islamic state was promising not only to torture and kill them but had found all the relatives of the soldiers and promised to kill every single one of their relatives as well.

This is why they all abandoned their weapons because they might have been willing to die but not willing for every member of their family and all their genetics to permanently be wiped from the face of the earth.

So, Obama (with acknowledgement of Europe and NATO is fighting an air war there to defend Kurdistan and from Baghdad south and also trying to rescue hundreds of thousands of minority refugees from being beheaded or being buried alive by the Islamic state.

However, the funding for the Islamic state is partly based upon their successes that they show in videos on the web. Without successes that can be documented funding from the 10 to 11 million fundamentalist and irate Sunnis may dry up eventually and the Islamic state will be left with drug running and human trafficking and other kinds of "Drug Dealer" kind of extortion that most terrorist groups are primarily funded by.

So, the only real way to slowly end the Islamic state is actually political and trying to prevent any major further successes of the Islamic state.

However, as an intuitive I need to warn the world concerning what I potentially see coming: "If funding for the Islamic State starts to dry up they may feel monetarily forced to blow up the two Dams which is going to kill millions from north of Baghdad all the way to Basra in the south. And because most of the people in this area of the country are Shia Iran will likely get more involved against the Islamic state at that point.

Doing this would really get the attention of the world including Iran and things might get really really nasty in the Middle East at this point if this happens which might look like World War II or the the Viet Nam war with hundreds of thousands of casualties happening during short periods of time.

(In addition to the millions dead and countless buildings, farms, and important landmarks wiped away possibly permanently by a 20 foot tall wall of water heading towards Basra and the ocean.)

No comments: