Jared Diamond who wrote "Collapse" likely would agree with me because the system is unsustainable with 40% of pollinators of our food gone during this century. This is because most Bees, bumblebees and butterflies (about 40% of them worldwide are now going extinct.
So, my estimates of 50% of our present level of populations gone this century are close to the mark.
In other words IF there are 8 billion people alive now we should have 4 to 5 billion left at the end of this century just from starvation and food priced too high for them to buy and eat it. Too high in price for 40% to make enough money to buy it and eat it. So, it would have to be given to them or they would die slowly or quickly.
What would this collapse look like?
It would look a lot like what we are now seeing in Syria, Iraq, Somalia and Yemen and other countries combined in Africa that now expect 20 million people to die of starvation by fall right now!
However, in the long run this century what it would look like likely is this:
No matter how many babies people have worldwide most will not live to 30 years of age.
Why?
Because the poorest 40% will not be able to buy enough food, get married, get educated, own land, get jobs, start businesses (legal ones at least) and so because of this likely will be dead directly or indirectly because of the extincting pollinators by 30 years of age.
Why?
Because as the pollinators die off and go extinct food becomes as a necessity 2 or 3 or 4 or even 5 times as expensive as before. This leads to food riots and starvation among those in the lower 40% of economics worldwide. So, if you aren't in a developed nation with something like Food stamps you simply slowly starve to death without ANY medical care whatsoever.
So, this greatly reduces the number of people who find a way to survive to 30 worldwide.
But, if you manage to make it to 30 likely if you are in a nation like in Europe or the U.S. or Canada or Australia or New Zealand or a place like this you likely are then self educated enough to make it to 90, 100 or even 110 or 120 if you have access to good food and good medical care.
This will be the reality of this century for all of us.
begin quote from:
- Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (titled Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive for the British edition) is a 2005 book by academic and ...
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (titled Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive for the British edition) is a 2005 book by academic and popular science author Jared Diamond, in which Diamond reviews the causes of historical and pre-historical instances of societal collapse — particularly those involving significant influences from environmental changes, the effects of climate change, hostile neighbors, and trade partners — and considers the responses different societies have had to such threats.Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed 
Author Jared Diamond Country United States Language English Publisher Viking Press Publication date2005 (second edition in 2011[1]) Media type Print (Hardcover and Paperback) Pages 592 ISBN 0-14-303655-6 OCLC 62868295 Preceded by Guns, Germs, and Steel Followed by The World Until Yesterday
While the bulk of the book is concerned with the demise of these historical civilizations, Diamond also argues that humanity collectively faces, on a much larger scale, many of the same issues, with possibly catastrophic near-future consequences to many of the world's populations.
Contents
Synopsis
In the prologue, Jared Diamond summarizes his methodology in one paragraph:Diamond says Easter Island provides the best historical example of a societal collapse in isolation.
This book employs the comparative method to understand societal collapses to which environmental problems contribute. My previous book (Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies), had applied the comparative method to the opposite problem: the differing rates of buildup of human societies on different continents over the last 13,000 years. In the present book focusing on collapses rather than buildups, I compare many past and present societies that differed with respect to environmental fragility, relations with neighbors, political institutions, and other "input" variables postulated to influence a society's stability. The "output" variables that I examine are collapse or survival, and form of the collapse if collapse does occur. By relating output variables to input variables, I aim to tease out the influence of possible input variables on collapses.[2]
Collapses of past societies
Diamond identifies five factors that contribute to collapse: climate change, hostile neighbours, collapse of essential trading partners, environmental problems, and failure to adapt to environmental issues.
The root problem in all but one of Diamond's factors leading to collapse is overpopulation relative to the practicable (as opposed to the ideal theoretical) carrying capacity of the environment. The one factor not related to overpopulation is the harmful effect of accidentally or intentionally introduction of non-native species to a region.
Diamond also writes about cultural factors (values), such as the apparent reluctance of the Greenland Norse to eat fish. Diamond also states that "it would be absurd to claim that environmental damage must be a major factor in all collapses: the collapse of the Soviet Union is a modern counter-example, and the destruction of Carthage by Rome in 146 BC is an ancient one. It's obviously true that military or economic factors alone may suffice".[3]
Modern societies
He also lists twelve environmental problems facing humankind today. The first eight have historically contributed to the collapse of past societies:
- Deforestation and habitat destruction
- Soil problems (erosion, salinization, and soil fertility losses)
- Water management problems
- Overhunting
- Overfishing
- Effects of introduced species on native species
- Overpopulation
- Increased per-capita impact of people
- Anthropogenic climate change
- Buildup of toxins in the environment
- Energy shortages
- Full human use of the Earth’s photosynthetic capacity
Conclusions
In the last chapter, he discuss environmental problems facing modern societies and addresses objections that are often given to dismiss the importance of environmental problems (section "One-liner objections"[4]). In the "Further readings" section, he gives suggestions to people who asks "What can I do as an individual?".[5] He also draws conclusions, such as:
In fact, one of the main lesson to be learned from the collapses of the Maya, Anasazi, Easter Islanders, and those other past societies [...] is that a society's steep decline may begin only a decade or two after the society reaches its peak numbers, wealth, and power. [...] The reason is simple: maximum population, wealth, resource consumption, and waste production mean maximum environmental impact, approaching the limit where impact outstrips resources.[6]
Finally, he answers the question "What are the choices that we must make if we are to succeed, and not to fail?" by identifying two crucial choices distinguishing the past societies which failed from those which survived:[7]
- Long-term planning: "[...] the courage to practice long-term thinking, and to make bold, courageous, anticipatory decisions at a time when problems have become perceptible but before they have reached crisis proportions."[7]
- Willingness to reconsider core values: "[...] the courage to make painful decisions about values. Which of the values that formerly served a society well can continue to be maintained under new changed circumstances? Which of these treasured values must instead be jettisoned and replaced with different approaches?"[7]
Book structure
Collapse is divided into four parts.
- Part One describes the environment of the US state of Montana, focusing on the lives of several individuals in order to put a human face on the interplay between society and the environment.
- Part Two describes past societies that have collapsed. Diamond uses a
"framework" when considering the collapse of a society, consisting of
five "sets of factors" that may affect what happens to a society:
environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, loss of trading partners, and the society's own responses to its environmental problems. The societies Diamond describes are:
- The Greenland Norse (cf. Hvalsey Church) (climate change, environmental damage, loss of trading partners, irrational reluctance to eat fish, hostile neighbors and most unwillingness to adapt in the face of social collapse)
- Easter Island (a society that collapsed entirely due to environmental damage)
- The Polynesians of Pitcairn Island (environmental damage and loss of trading partners)
- The Anasazi of southwestern North America (environmental damage and climate change)
- The Maya of Central America (environmental damage, climate change, and hostile neighbors)
- Finally, Diamond discusses three past success stories:
- The tiny Pacific island of Tikopia
- The agricultural success of central New Guinea
- The forest management in Japan of the Tokugawa-era, and in Germany.
- Part Three examines modern societies, including:
- The collapse into genocide of Rwanda, caused in part by overpopulation
- The failure of Haiti compared with the relative success of its neighbor on Hispaniola, the Dominican Republic
- The problems facing a developing nation, China
- The problems facing a First World nation, Australia
- Part Four concludes the study by considering such subjects as business and globalization, and "extracts practical lessons for us today" (pp. 22–23). Specific attention is given to the polder model as a way Dutch society has addressed its challenges and the "top-down" and most importantly "bottom-up" approaches that we must take now that "our world society is presently on a non-sustainable course" (p. 498) in order to avoid the "12 problems of non-sustainability" that he expounds throughout the book, and reviews in the final chapter. The results of this survey are perhaps why Diamond sees "signs of hope" nevertheless and arrives at a position of "cautious optimism" for all our futures.
Reviews
Tim Flannery gave Collapse the highest praise in Science, writing:[8]
While he planned the book, Diamond at first thought that it would deal only with human impacts on the environment. Instead, what has emerged is arguably the most incisive study of senescing human civilizations ever written. [...] the fact that one of the world's most original thinkers has chosen to pen this mammoth work when his career is at his apogee is itself a persuasive argument that Collapse must be taken seriously. It is probably the most important book you will ever read.
The Economist's review was generally favorable, although the reviewer had two disagreements. First, the reviewer felt Diamond was not optimistic enough about the future. Secondly, the reviewer claimed Collapse contains some erroneous statistics: for instance, Diamond supposedly overstated the number of starving people in the world.[9] University of British Columbia professor of ecological planning William Rees wrote that Collapse's most important lesson is that societies most able to avoid collapse are the ones that are most agile; they are able to adopt practices favorable to their own survival and avoid unfavorable ones. Moreoever, Rees wrote that Collapse is "a necessary antidote" to followers of Julian Simon, such as Bjørn Lomborg who authored The Skeptical Environmentalist. Rees explained this assertion as follows:[10]
Human behaviour towards the ecosphere has become dysfunctional and now arguably threatens our own long-term security. The real problem is that the modern world remains in the sway of a dangerously illusory cultural myth. Like Lomborg, most governments and international agencies seem to believe that the human enterprise is somehow 'decoupling' from the environment, and so is poised for unlimited expansion. Jared Diamond's new book, Collapse, confronts this contradiction head-on.
Jennifer Marohasy of the think-tank, Institute of Public Affairs wrote a critical review in Energy & Environment, in particular its chapter on Australia's environmental degradation. Marohasy claims that Diamond reflects a popular view that is reinforced by environmental campaigning in Australia, but is not supported by evidence, and argues that many of his claims are easily disproved.[11]
In his review in The New Yorker, Malcolm Gladwell highlights the way Diamond's approach differs from traditional historians by focusing on environmental issues rather than cultural questions.[12]
Diamond's distinction between social and biological survival is a critical one, because too often we blur the two, or assume that biological survival is contingent on the strength of our civilizational values... The fact is, though, that we can be law-abiding and peace-loving and tolerant and inventive and committed to freedom and true to our own values and still behave in ways that are biologically suicidal.
While Diamond does not reject the approach of traditional historians, his book, according to Gladwell, vividly illustrates the limitations of that approach. Gladwell demonstrates this with his own example of a recent ballot initiative in Oregon, where questions of property rights and other freedoms were subject to a free and healthy debate, but serious ecological questions were given scant attention.
In 2006 the book was shortlisted for The Aventis Prizes for Science Books award, eventually losing out to David Bodanis' Electric Universe.[13]
Criticisms
Jared Diamond's thesis that Easter Island society collapsed in isolation entirely due to environmental damage is contested by some ethnographers and archaeologists who argue that the introduction of diseases carried by European colonizers and slave raiding,[14] which devastated the population in the 19th century, had a much greater social impact than environmental decline and that introduced animals, first rats and then sheep, were greatly responsible for the island's loss of native flora, which came closest to deforestation as late as 1930–1960.[15]
The book Questioning Collapse (Cambridge University Press, 2010) is a collection of essays by anthropologists criticizing various aspects of Diamond's books Collapse and Guns, Germs and Steel: A short history of everybody for the last 13,000 years.[16]
Film
In 2010, National Geographic released the documentary film Collapse based on Diamond's book.[17][18]
See also
- List of important publications in anthropology
- List of environmental books
- Complexity
- Creeping normality
- Decline of the Roman Empire
- Deforestation during the Roman period
- Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies by Jared Diamond
- Ecocide
- Environmental disaster
- Global catastrophic risk
- Global warming
- Human impact on the environment
- List of environmental issues
- Societal collapse
- Sustainability
- Twilight of the Elites: America After Meritocracy
Notes and references
- Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive, Penguin Books, 2005 and 2011 (ISBN 978-0-241-95868-1).
External links
 |
Wikiquote has quotations related to: Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed |
- Why do societies collapse? (2003), a TED talk by Jared Diamond
- "Metacritic – collection of reviews of book". Archived from the original on 21 July 2006.
- The first chapter
- Tokugawa Shoguns vs. Consumer Democracy: Diamond interview on the subjects raised in the book with NPQ, Spring 2005, concentrating on the intersection of politics and environmentalism.
- How Societies Fail – And Sometimes Succeed, video of a seminar given in June 2005 at the Long Now Foundation.
- Learning from Past Societies: The Sustainability Lessons Are There, If Only We Can Find Them – This is an assessment of the process maturity used in Collapse and a similar book, Treading Lightly, to answer their driving questions. The assessment sheds light on the process maturity of any similar effort to solve difficult complex social system problems, particularly the sustainability problem.
- COLLAPSE? – museum exhibit developed by the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County in collaboration with Jared Diamond (pdf archive)
- Environmental-issues – A public annotated bibliography containing print and online sources discussing the 12 most serious environmental problems that Diamond discusses in Collapse.
No comments:
Post a Comment