Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Never are there easy answers in the Middle East and likely there never will be

There are those who say that Obama should have done something different. However, I have a different argument. My argument is Iran, Russia and Assad forcing Assad to stay in power in Syria directly caused the genocide now.

Here is how we got to here directly:

First, teenagers rebeled against Assad so he had them tortured to death. This pissed off their relatives and friends in Homs and so they demonstrated more and more people were tortured and put to death teenagers and adults this time. So, even more people got up in arms finally and started fighting back mostly Sunnis.

That was 3 or 4 years ago and Russia and Iran and Hezbollah decided it didn't matter what the majority of Sunnis wanted.

50 or 100 years ago it was still might makes right.

But now, it has been Arab Spring where anything might be possible in the middle east as it was in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt etc.

So, Sunni Syrians thought to themselves, "Anything might also be possible in Syria too."

So now at least close to 200,000 people are dead and it isn't over and most of these are Sunnis and their relatives and friends.

So, after all these Sunnis were murdered and tortored and kicked out of their homes and became refugees, Sunnis from all over the world started funding extremist Sunni Groups like Al Qaeda because they were crazy enough to sacrifice themselves and win battles as a result.

The most successful and the most violent and brutal of these Terrorist groups was ISIS which then became known as ISIL and now is known as the Islamic State. So, since they were the most brutal and successful they also got the most funding from Sunnis wanting revenge on All Shias for the 200,000 dead Sunnis (at least) in Syria.

So, as the funding came in from rich and middle Class and even poor Sunnis (there are 1.2 billion Sunnis in the world by the way) the brutality of Isil (Isis) increased exponentially.

And as long as Isis kept cutting off heads and having success and showing their brutality on Videos on the Web the money kept on coming in until now.

But, funding may start to dry up now their advance into Kurdistan has been stopped. So, likely to get funding now they might start to attack Assad more and Assad might even fall.

So, in a sense, the strategy of Obama actually had nothing at all to do with any of this. Mostly it was the strategy of Russia, Iran and Assad that caused this mess. Not only that Syria has always been Russia's (Sphere of influence) (Cold War term) to prevent world nuclear holocaust. And Syria has always been under Iran's influence just like the Shia government has been under Iran's influence ever since the U.S. pulled out of Iraq.

And they are the ones most responsible for the Islamic State and the genocide of thousands right now.

The people actually the most scared right now are Syria, Iraq and Iran, because if Islamic State fighters (potentially hundreds of thousands) kept coming from all over the world, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Even Egypt might all be wiped out by this very very brutal terrorist style of fighting.

And this is why the world (starting with the U.S.) is starting to step in because it sees the Islamic State as a potential and now actual threat to all worldwide civilizations and governments including Russia and China. And in some way (Russia and China) likely will get involved to destroy the Islamic state too because it is too chaotic to be allowed to exist and just kill millions of people ongoing which is actually what would happen the next 10 or 20 years if the Islamic state goes unchecked.

However, to many Sunnis it is only the revenge for 200,000 Sunni deaths in Syria at the hands of Assad.

And this is why this is getting more complicated every single day. And it might continue to get more complicated every single day on into the future.

However, unless the U.S. and the world has a plan that they plan to execute the Islamic state is likely to keep growing for a variety of reasons.

The first reason is that Sunnis want revenge on Shias (and any other non-Sunni Minority group) while they are at it including Christians.

So, the 1.2 billion Sunnis have had enough of Shias and could theoretically rise up through the Islamic State and genocide all Shias on Earth.

This is actually what Obama might be worried about because of the collateral damage worldwide that this would create, especially in what that would do when all oil out of the middle east stopped shipping anywhere on earth outside the middle east. Read my article a few years ago about how 25 years without oil on earth  would kill 5 billion people right now here on earth. Here it is:reprint of 5 Billion Less People on Earth? Think about how that could happen. Without oil right now we only could keep alive a maximum of 2 billion on earth the way things presently are.

I think this would be horrific and likely would create as a bi-product a nuclear blast in some areas because the Islamic State likely is rich enough to buy a nuclear weapon from anyone willing to sell one anywhere on earth.

I think the Islamic state blowing up the two dams and killing millions of mostly Shia Muslims and getting a nuke and blowing someplace up like Damascus or Baghdad are actually what people should be worrying about the most.

However, worrying about terrorist strikes on Europe and the U.S. and Russia and China might be important to be concerned about right now too. This is my thought as an intuitive.

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