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5 Questions Tillerson Will Have to Answer in Asia
Foreign Policy Magazine via Yahoo News8 hours agoOn Wednesday, Rex Tillerson departed for his first trip to Asia as secretary of state. Japanese, South Korean, and Chinese officials and observers will be asking five fundamental questions ...- Sign in
5 Questions Tillerson Will Have to Answer in Asia
Will the United States continue to lead in Asia?
On
Wednesday, Rex Tillerson departed for his first trip to Asia as
secretary of state. Japanese, South Korean, and Chinese officials and
observers will be asking five fundamental questions about the new
administration’s Asia policy.
1. Will the United States continue to lead in Asia? While
the signals coming from the White House on global leadership have not
been encouraging, American allies and partners, and for different
reasons, China, are asking whether America will maintain its leadership
role in Asia. Will the United States continue to rally other countries
around priorities like nonproliferation, counterterrorism, and freedom
of navigation? That Tillerson is not visiting Southeast Asia on his
first trip is disappointing, because it is the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN), now in its 50th year, that provides the
platforms, like the East Asia Summit, where the U.S. can speak to
regional priorities such as foreign terrorist fighters and China’s
artificial island-building in the South China Sea. Southeast Asia is
also home to an exploding consumer class. But stops in Tokyo and Seoul
will give Tillerson a chance to solidify relationships with counterparts
in Japan and South Korea, with both allies looking for reassurance of
U.S. staying power and shared priorities.
2. Does the Trump administration have a vision for strategic economic engagement in Asia? Central
to the question of American leadership is a vision for a prosperous
Asia, as economic policy is a critical facet of diplomacy in Asia. With
the Trump administration’s dismissal of the Trans-Pacific Partnership,
partners and allies are left questioning what the new administration
wants to achieve in Asia on the economic front. There is great demand
for the United States to provide alternatives to China’s Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a trade deal that includes all of
Asia, and to the “One Belt, One Road” development strategy. Asia wants
more high-quality U.S. goods and investment. But bilateral trade deals
are not the best vehicle in a region that is integrating. At base,
ASEAN’s main project is to come together in an economic and political
union. Fast-growing Southeast Asia will want to know that the United
States continues to support its vision of an ASEAN community.
3. What is the Trump administration’s China policy? Trump
has signaled his intention to take a harder line with China. But while
the region certainly looks to the United States to take a lead in
pushing back on bad Chinese behavior, “standing up to China” is not an
end in and of itself. U.S. partners in Asia want to see a strategy
grounded in shared principles — protecting U.S. rights and sovereignty,
advancing a fair and transparent economic environment, and guarding U.S.
national security — and that seeks not just to confront China, but also
to find common ground and work out differences peacefully. All of Asia,
but particularly Southeast Asia, is irreversibly dependent on both the
United States and China for its economic livelihood and for regional
peace and stability. No one in Asia wants a new Cold War that forces
countries to choose sides. Conversely, in areas where the United States
and China have been able to forge cooperation — or at least civil
dialogue — it can catalyze region-wide cooperation. A case in point is
North Korea.
4. Does the Trump administration have a clear strategy for dealing with North Korea? North
Korea’s recent missile launches, apparently simulating an attack on
U.S. and South Korean forces, will undoubtedly be at the center of
Tillerson’s discussions. In recent years, efforts to work with China to
impose new costs on North Korea — particularly through U.N. sanctions —
have helped galvanize broader regional efforts to shut down North Korean
proliferation activities and fundraising. With clear guidance from the
U.N. Security Council, and particularly with consensus among the
permanent members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the
United States — smaller, weaker nations have been more willing and able
to help shut down Pyongyang’s money-making pipelines. With the killing
of Kim Jung Un’s younger brother in Kuala Lumpur last month, now is a
good time to push Southeast Asia toward even tougher enforcement of
sanctions.
South
Korea’s decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense
system is an important signal that the United States will protect itself
and its allies, but it is also raising tensions with China, which
opposes North Korea’s nuclear activities, but also has deep-seated
concerns about the consequences for China of possible conflict on the
Korean Peninsula. Pressing Beijing to do more to raise the costs to the
North of pursuing its illegal nuclear and missile programs will be key
to any North Korea strategy, but China does not, in fact, have complete
control over Pyongyang. In Tillerson’s discussions in Beijing, Asia will
be looking to see that he intends to push China to do more, but also
that he understands Chinese interests. North Korea’s nuclear program is a
complex, hard problem with no good answers. It is a quandary that has
challenged even the best, most seasoned diplomats and strategic
thinkers. Asia will be watching to see if the Trump administration is up
to this difficult task.
5. Does the Trump administration have a sensible approach to fractious maritime disputes? The
South China Sea has faded from the public eye in recent months, but
many in Asia will be looking to Tillerson’s meetings to clarify the U.S.
position on the region’s maritime disagreements. His call during his
confirmation hearing for a “blockade” of island outposts and statements
from other key Donald Trump advisers suggesting a more confrontational
approach in the South China Sea initially raised serious questions about
U.S. intentions. The one thing that the entire region, including ASEAN,
has consistently agreed on has been the need to resolve disputes in
accordance with international law (even if some, particularly China, try
to interpret that law differently). Chinese officials will most likely
seek to avoid discussion of maritime issues.
Japan,
whose own maritime dispute with China in the Senkaku Islands has heated
up in recent years, has sought reassurances that the United States will
continue to uphold international law, honor its security commitments,
and continue to oppose China’s militarization of its South China Sea
outposts. How Tillerson responds to these opposing pressures will be
telling. If he visits Japan and China without speaking on maritime
issues, that will raise questions about America’s commitment to
international law, its longstanding role as security guarantor in the
region, and obligations to allies like Japan and the Philippines. But an
approach that isn’t grounded in law, and doesn’t take into account the
complexities of the competing claims, will only aggravate tensions and
weaken the ability of the United States to lead on this consequential
issue.
Photo
credit: Tillerson (right) and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Bonn,
Germany, on February 17, 2017. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images
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