First tropical storm watch of hurricane season issued for South Texas and Mexico as storm takes shape
The Atlantic hurricane season is kicking into gear with two potential tropical threats this week, one of which will deliver drenching rainfall and serious flood threats to parts of Mexico, Central America and the US.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the stretch of coast from Port O’Connor in South Texas to northeastern Mexico as a broad area of thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico develops into the first tropical storm of what’s expected to be a hyperactive hurricane season.
The system was designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One by the National Hurricane Center on Monday afternoon. As the name suggests, it isn’t quite a tropical storm yet, but is expected to become one and poses a threat to the areas in the tropical storm watch over the next 48 hours.
The system had 40 mph winds Monday afternoon – strong enough that if it does develop a coherent circulation, it would be named Tropical Storm Alberto. It’s forecast to by late Tuesday or Wednesday before approaching the northern coast of Mexico on Thursday.
The system’s strength will be limited by its short time over water, but it’s main threat of significant rain and flooding will not: multiple days of gushing rainfall for parts of Central America, southern Mexico and the US western Gulf Coast.
Heavy rain was already ongoing Monday in parts of Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador and Honduras as the gyre churned. Double-digit rainfall totals are possible in these areas by Thursday. Rain is needed desperately in parts of Mexico and Central America that are bone-dry after weeks of unrelenting heat. But day after day of heavy rain will quickly overwhelm parched soils unable to absorb water as fast as it falls, resulting in dangerous flooding.
Deep tropical moisture was also fueling storms as far north as the US’s western Gulf Coast. Double-digit rainfall totals are likely in portions of coastal and southern Texas by the weekend, while other portions of the Gulf Coast could pick up several inches through midweek.
A level 2 of 4 risk of flooding rainfall is in place from the Texas coast to southern Alabama Monday. The risk increases to a level 3 of 4 for Tuesday in parts of Texas and Louisiana.
By Wednesday, the air over the Gulf Coast will be loaded up with “incredible amounts of moisture” which could “easily” produce flash flooding, the Weather Prediction Center warned Monday. A level 3 of 4 threat remains in place in Texas Wednesday.
Heavy rain isn’t the most welcome sight along some parts of the US Gulf Coast. June has been drier after a drenching spring, but the soil and area rivers are still holding on to plenty of water in eastern Texas and western Louisiana.
Another tropical threat could take shape
Another tropical threat is stirring in the Atlantic as development gets underway in the Gulf of Mexico.
An area of showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas could be the starting point for a potential tropical system later this week. Right now, the National Hurricane Center gives it a low chance of developing into a tropical system.
Multiple atmospheric factors must align for the area of stormy weather to get its act together, but the opportunity for development exists over the next few days as it slowly pushes westward.
If something tropical does develop, it could approach the southeastern US by Thursday or Friday and be steered south of the heat dome roasting areas farther north. It’s unclear exactly which areas could be impacted, but anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas should keep a close eye on the forecast as it comes into focus in the coming days.
Drenching rain could soak parts of the Southeast coast and rough seas are possible from the Bahamas to the mid-Atlantic coasts regardless of development.
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