Thursday, February 5, 2009

Adaptation and Innovation

Adaptation and Innovation have been the primary keys to the survival of the human race at every point. These times of extreme change are no exception.

Some of the qualities necessary for the survival of most people are taking time to study what other people did and didn't do in similar downturns because the only downturns in my lifetime that are at all similar to this one was in the 1970s but now this looks more like the 1930s the way it is moving.

The primary cause that most people aren't looking at is world weather related. Whether you believe in Global climate change or not, we all have to admit that going from growing 130% of what the world needed to survive for over 20 years and now growing only 100% of what the world needs to eat and live just might be the canary in the coal mine of what we are actually dealing with worldwide.

The panic of the lack of relatively easily available food in third world nations to basically unavailable food for many at any price has led to panics around the world since last summer. Likely this years harvests might be worse even though there is great flooding in Australia right now. It is debatable if there are enough dams and water holding devices to make up for the many years of droughts. The same problems exist worldwide.

So, even though in 1st world nations like Europe, the United States and Canada and Australia might see the cause within the subprime and the price of oil, really the cause is actually much deeper and resides in the end in changing weather patterns and droughts affecting harvests and the ability to grow at all.

So, one of the ways people adapt to less food is that more people tend to starve and to die. No matter how humanitarian any one or any group is or how bad it makes us all feel it will happen with us or without us. I expect looking at the world that we will lose 1 billion to 2 billion people within the next 40 years here on earth. This will make it more difficult to feel good about yourself for those of you who manage to survive. But remember, its only really been about 20 or thirty years when the world has actually been able to grow 100% to 130% of the worlds food needs. The fact that it wasn't properly distributed and much of it wasted thereby is another question. But now that there is no longer enough we have to expect things to be maybe like they were food wise during the 1930s to 1950s once again. This will inevitably cause food riots and wars maybe even as bad as the French revolution that ended Marie Antoinette at the guillotine but it is important to realize that is where we really are now come what may.

Stocking up with enough staples for one year and learning to recycle your stocks in case you can't buy food for a few months is an important adaptation in these difficult times. As more businesses collapse more banks will inevitably collapse and this will make it more difficult for farmers to get loans to grow food. The food available on earth will only grow more scarce and expensive which will cause many more people to starve than necessary. The whole world is changing. Only those who adapt to these awful changes will survive them.

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