World Wheat output seen lower in 2009

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/12/01/stories/2008120151371300.htm
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World wheat output seen lower in 2009


Mumbai, Nov. 30 Low world wheat prices – currently quoting around $200 a tonne or even less – are expected to affect planting for 2009. Much of the reduction is likely to happen in the developed countries where there usually is a supply response to prices. Current world wheat prices are half of the average price that prevailed during the second half of 2007 and early part of 2008.

The total output in 2008 expanded by a record 10 per cent or 63 million tonnes (mt) to 673 mt, resulting in huge surplus and rising stocks.
LOW OUTPUT

Now, low prices are likely to hurt output next season. Falling wheat prices and high input costs will affect plantings in major producing countries, and disappointed with returns from their 2008 harvest, some farmers will turn to other crops, the UK-based International Grains Council (IGC) remarked in its latest report adding the total harvested area is forecast to fall by 1.6 per cent to 221.7 million hectares. end quote from above web page listing.

http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/005897.html

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World Grain Demand Could Surge With Failed China Crop

A small percentage change in China's agricultural output would cause a large increase in China's demand for grain crops.

Global grain markets are facing breaking point according to new research by the University of Leeds into the agricultural stability of China.

Experts predict that if China's recent urbanization trends continue, and the country imports just 5% more of its grain, the entire world's grain export would be swallowed whole.

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Since there have been news reports of severe drought in about 8 different regions in China and since these areas rely almost completely on rain rather than dams or canals it is fairly certain grain harvests will be very small in most of China which will cause China to buy a lot more from the international market to keep their people going. This in turn is likely to affect worldwide prices and especially those in third world nations unable to compete for food when prices are high.