'There is a military option' on North Korea
Begin quote from:
Japan split over how to deal with North Korea
Japan split over how to deal with North Korean missile launches
Story highlights
- Abe pushing to revise Japan's pacifist constitution in the face of N. Korean threats
- But pacifist groups instead blame the US and Donald Trump for inflaming tensions
(CNN)Residents
in northern Japan were woken abruptly Friday by blaring air raid sirens
signaling a North Korean intermediate-range ballistic missile was about
to fly over their heads.
It
was the second time in just over two weeks the rogue state had fired a
projectile over Japanese territory, a provocation which was immediately
condemned by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
The
missile passed over the northern island of Hokkaido where anxious
residents told local media they didn't understand why North Korea was
acting so antagonistically.
But CNN's Tokyo producer Yoko Wakatsuki said broader reaction in Tokyo and across national media was more measured.
"People
know what North Korea is doing is a little bit of provocation ... they
know this is not a direct attack to Japan, it's not an overture to war,"
CNN Tokyo producer Yoko Wakatsuki said.
But underneath the calm
exterior, Friday's launch has widened a growing fault line in the
ideological war over how Japan should deal with the North Korean threat
to the region.
Abe's government
have sought closer ties with the United States while working to change
Japan's post-World War II constitution to allow the country to actively
defend itself against external threats.
But
Koichi Nakano, Political Science professor at Sophia University, told
CNN Abe's opponents are angry their supposed ally in Washington was
making Japan less safe under President Trump and want to soften their
ties to the US, while upholding their nation's pacifist values.
"The
danger of North Korea has been if anything heightened after Trump came
to power (due to) his sometimes really provocative language and tweets.
He's not really helping that much," he said.
The push for re-militarization
For decades, Japan has debated revising its pacifist constitution which prevents it from initiating war.
But
in recent years, under the threat of attack by an increasingly
antagonistic North Korea, Shinzo Abe's government has made a renewed
push for change.
"If
the government gets its way, it's quite conceivable Abe will use this
to try to revise the constitution to 'normalize' Japan's defense
position," Nakano said.
The
constitution came into effect in 1947, after Japan's defeat in World War
II, and says "land, sea and air forces, as well as other war potential
will never be maintained." The Japanese military is currently known as
the Self-Defense Forces.
In mid-April, Abe said Japan's security situation in the region was "getting increasingly severe," referring to the North Korean threat. But repeated polls among the Japanese public have found no appetite for constitutional change.
"Abe
and his government are trying to make the most of this crisis and the
opportunity, almost, to try to make an argument (for) the push towards
remilitarization," Nakano said.
But
Heigo Sato, vice president of the Institute of World Studies at
Takushoku University, told CNN Abe was first and foremost trying to
change the constitution to legalize Japan's current armed forces.
"We don't know if Abe has a hidden objective to remilitarize Japan after those changes to the constitution," he said.
The nuclear option
Speaking to CNN on Thursday, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said while he was in charge there would be no nuclear weapons in his country, no matter what the North does.
Some Japanese preparing for nuclear attack 02:35
This
has long been the stance of Japan as well, but in recent years some
politicians have begun to raise the possibility of nuclearization in the
wake of North Korea's nuclear testing.
"There
are politicians who are arguing about nuclear sharing with the US,
meaning to bring in tactical nukes into the Japanese mainland so we can
have some sort of deterrence," Sato said, adding it was considered an
option of last resort.
Japan is the
only country in the world to suffer the effects of an atomic explosion
within a civilian setting. The bombings, which occurred in the cities of
Hiroshima and Nagasaki, have colored attitudes to nuclear weapons ever
since.
Additionally, it is still
recovering from the nuclear disaster at Fukushima power plant in 2011,
when an earthquake followed by a tsunami blew out safety systems and
triggered a meltdown.
"The
opposition to the idea of Japan going nuclear is even stronger obviously
than the idea of revising (the constitution) ... even the discussion of
that continues to be taboo," Nakano said.
But
a nuclear South Korea under Moon or another leader could change that,
Tong Zhao, fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy,
told CNN.
"If South Korea pursued
its own nuclear program, Japan will feel a great pressure to follow suit
and there will be broader implications in China and Russia," he said.
Arms race in East Asia
Japan already has a number of defensive options to deal with a missile fired out of North Korea, experts say.
Naval
destroyers fitted with Aegis missile defense systems can be positioned
to shoot down projectiles, but the system is far from perfect, Zhao
said.
Why does North Korea keep launching ICBMs? 01:14
"Japan
has to place the Aegis-mounted ships in the right place before the
missile launches in order to have a good chance to engage the missiles.
(Plus) interception is not perfect, it's unlikely to be fully
successful," he said.
Tokyo
continues to improve its defensive capabilities in the face of constant
provocations from North Korea, but any rapid expansion of its military
or changes to its constitution could have implications far outside
Pyongyang.
Zhao said, in an effort
to deter North Korea, Japan could provoke an arms race in East Asia with
South Korea, China and even Russia.
"There
is deep distrust among the regional countries ... some Chinese argue
Japan is stirring up tensions over the Korean peninsula in order to have
an excuse to have its own military," he said.
Nakano said any knee jerk reaction to the North Korean threat could risk inflaming tensions across the region.
"North
Korea is performing provocatively, no doubt about it ... but the tense
conditions are not just about North Korea but about China and the US as
well," he said.
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