Tuesday, March 29, 2011

a Fox knows many things

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/books/review/book-review-future-babble-by-dan-gardner.html
begin quote from above article
The most generous conclusion Tetlock could draw was that some experts were less awful than others. Isaiah Berlin once quoted the Greek poet Archilochus to distinguish between two types of thinkers: “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” Berlin admired both ways of thinking, but Tetlock borrowed the metaphor to account for why some experts fared better. The least accurate forecasters, he found, were hedgehogs: “thinkers who ‘know one big thing,’ aggressively extend the explanatory reach of that one big thing into new domains” and “display bristly impatience with those who ‘do not get it,’ ” he wrote. Better experts “look like foxes: thinkers who know many small things,” “are skeptical of grand schemes” and are “diffident about their own forecasting prowess.” end quote.

I agree with the above statement in regard to predicting the future. I have long been suspicious of specialists. For example, I have had the biggest problem with people in religion that only want to look at the universe one way. Whereas one of my favorite statements is that, "In any given moment there are millions of points of view as to what exactly is taking place". And in addition to that, "They all may be considered correct" if one had the time to take (or desire) to see if they all rang true. So, if there are a relatively infinite amount of versions of any one moment or reality, and all of them might be considered correct and not erroneous in any major way, then having only one point of view on any given subject is to demonstrate a lack of intelligence at best.

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