What I find interesting is with the present dynamics they way they are presently going, 25 years from now Assad may still rule (a much smaller Syria) from Damascus. (Much like Afghanistan is run from Kabul but with very little control of other areas in Afghanistan). Likewise, Assad 25 years from now might only control Damascus and very little else. To the north of him likely will be Al Qaeda running the show. Because long after the moderate oppostion (the one's that want a Syrian Democracy) will have mostly given up and moved elsewhere in the Middle East, North Africa or to Europe or other regions of the Earth, Al Qaeda might still be in Northern Syria unless moved away forcibly by Russia, Syria, Iran, the U.S., Turkey or Iraq or some combination of the above for example by NATO or even U.N. Forces.
So, the dynamic is very strange in Syria in general. The U.S. and Europe would like Assad Gone but Only if someone like Al Qaeda isn't there ruling over everything. Al Qaeda adherents are happy to die for their cause because then they get to be martyrs. It is like having a suicide army whereas those advocating democracy actually want to be alive for their families to experience democracy in Syria. But, because of the tactics ongoing of Assad and Al Qaeda likely that is not to be for now. So most democracy advocates will likely eventually live elsewhere who have survived all this.
Russia and the United States don't want to see Al Qaeda in Charge of anything. Iran doesn't want Al Qaeda in charge of anything nor do the governments of Iraq or Syria. So, the most likely thing that will happen over the next 10 to 25 years is for Assad to stay in power. However, anything is possible in the middle east at any time. So, that is an unknown too. However, the one thing you can say is that Russia and the U.S. are less at odds with each other than they were one year ago. And because of that the world I think can rest easier.
However, all Sunni countries are still very angry at the way all Sunni people in Syria have been treated for a long time now by Assad and his government. So, the big unknown at this point is what are Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni countries going to do against Assad's government now over the next few years?
Assad is no longer powerful enough to declare war on Turkey or Saudi Arabia but Turkey and Saudi Arabia are definitely powerful enough to declare a war on Assad if they want to either through a real war or a proxy war. It could easily be said that a proxy war against Assad by Turkey and Saudi Arabia has been going on for some time now already.
So, there are still many unknowns in this mix in Syria. So, I can see why anyone who doesn't support Assad is moving somewhere else with their families if they want their families to stay alive and their children to be able to grow up in peace somewhere else. Syria at this point has no stable future ahead for the next 10 to 25 years as long as all these present dynamics stay in place.
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