Thursday, April 2, 2015

Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen?

The problems don't seem to be getting any better in any of these countries in some ways only worse. This is especially true in Syria and Yemen and Libya.

Because Iraq has Iran helping take down ISIS, at least ISIS in Iraq in larger cities likely will be gone. (At least there won't be large cities in the Control of ISIS within the next 6 months to years.

However, in Syria Assad though still strong in some ways is beginning to weaken, he is having to draw support from Sunni Conscripts who might turn on him at any moment. This is always not good.

So, though he is assured to be there in the short run, in the long run it is quite possible that Syria could, in fact at some point become a failed state there. Russia and Iran so far and Hezbollah have prevented this from happening.

Libya it is now very hard to say if Libya is actually better off without Qaddhafi. The only answer I can give with what I see is: "Maybe".

But, the saddest thing I think is that I now have to say, "Would Syria be better off without Assad?"

This was true the last few years but likely isn't true now simply because it is very likely that Syria would only become a failed state like Somalia once did in the 1990s and become taken over by groups like ISIS and Al Qaeda instead.

And it is likely at this point at least that the Houthis in Yemen might be actually wiped out by Sunnis in Yemen combined with the 10 Sunni Countries that have joined in a coalition against them. This likely might piss off Iran pretty bad. Hopefully, this doesn't escalate into an all out war between Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni Countries directly against Iran.

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