Thursday, January 14, 2010

Is China the Next Enron?

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/13/opinion/13friedman.html

begin quote from Friedman's article on China:
And here is the other thing to keep in mind. Think about all the hype, all the words, that have been written about China’s economic development since 1979. It’s a lot, right? What if I told you this: “It may be that we haven’t seen anything yet.”

Why do I say that? All the long-term investments that China has made over the last two decades are just blossoming and could really propel the Chinese economy into the 21st-century knowledge age, starting with its massive investment in infrastructure. Ten years ago, China had a lot bridges and roads to nowhere. Well, many of them are now connected. It is also on a crash program of building subways in major cities and high-speed trains to interconnect them. China also now has 400 million Internet users, and 200 million of them have broadband. Check into a motel in any major city and you’ll have broadband access. America has about 80 million broadband users.

Now take all this infrastructure and mix it together with 27 million students in technical colleges and universities — the most in the world. With just the normal distribution of brains, that’s going to bring a lot of brainpower to the market, or, as Bill Gates once said to me: “In China, when you’re one-in-a-million, there are 1,300 other people just like you.” end quote from Friedman's article.

Obviously, there are economic bubbles in China and in the end none of us really knows what will happen there but because of the money in the bank so to speak it appears relatively unlikely that China itself will economically "Buy the Farm". Sectors might collapse one at a time or in multiples but generally, as long as the general population doesn't become too upset with all the changes things actually might be relatively okay there. However, okay there is much much different than okay here in the Western world.

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