Begin quote from Chapter 2 of "Race Against the Machine"
"-----How has science fiction become business reality so quickly? Two concepts are essential for understanding this remarkable progress. The first, and better known, is Moore's Law which is an expansion of an observation made by Gordon Moore, co-founder of microprocessor maker Intel. in a 1965 article in Electronics magazine, Moore noted that the number of transistors in a minimum cost integrated circuit had been doubling every 12 months, and predicted that this same rate of improvement would continue into the future. When this proved to be the case, Moore's law was born.
Later modifications changed the time required for the doubling to occur; the present is 18 months. Variations of Moore's law have been applied to improvement over time in disk drive capacity, display resolution, and network bandwidth. In these and many other cases of digital improvement, doubling happens both quickly and reliably.
It also seems that software progresses at least as fast as hardware does, at least in some domains. Computer scientist Martin Grotschel analyzed the speed with which a standard optimization problem could be solved by computers over the period 1988 to 2003. He documented a 43 millionfold improvement, which he broke down into two factors: faster processors and better algothithms embedded in software. Processor speeds improved by a factor of 1,000, but these gains were dwarfed by the algorithms, which got 43,000 times better over the same period."
end quote from Chapter 2.
So, if you consider that just between 1988 and 2003 there was a 43 millionfold improvement in hardware and software and then you apply the doubling method to this (I'm not sure you can) there could be now a 86 million fold improvement between 2003 to the present of 2013 since 1988 to 2003 was 15 years and it will be 15 years since 2003 in 2018. So, I suppose it is possible to say that there will be a 86 millionfold improvement between 2003 and 2018 and then if we double that there will be a 172 millionfold improvement between 2018 and 2033 and another 344 millionfold improvement between 2033 and 2048 which will be 100 years from when I was born.
So, you can see the situation where the Singularity approaches everyone in manifold ways and who is to say when it occurs because it won't come like a nuclear bomb but will simply happen mostly unnoticed by the world. Instead we will see incremental improvements in everything ongoing technologically including much longer lifespans for those who can afford healthcare and health educations.
To the best of my ability I write about my experience of the Universe Past, Present and Future
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