It appears that Putin has learned the lesson of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and is pulling out before a quagmire manifests in Syria the way it did in Afghanistan. He has also learned from the American Quagmires of Viet Nam, Iraq and Afghanistan.
begin quote from:
So Much for Putin's Syria 'Quagmire'
| Wall Street Journal | - |
After
Vladimir Putin sent Russian forces to Syria in September, President
Obama offered this prediction: “An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up
[Bashar] Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get
them stuck in a quagmire and it won ...
So Much for Putin’s Syria ‘Quagmire’
The Kremlin has achieved its goal of propping up Assad.
ENLARGE
Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 14.
Photo:
Metzel Mikhail/TASS/ZUMA Press
As quagmires go, Mr. Putin will take it. On Monday he announced that Russia will begin withdrawing the “main part” of its forces in Syria having accomplished his strategic goals at little cost.
Mr. Putin rescued Mr. Assad when Russia’s Middle Eastern client was in danger of falling and has put him in a much stronger position. Russia focused its bombing on Mr. Assad’s moderate Sunni opponents, not Islamic State. The bombing and Hezbollah’s ground forces have broken the opposition’s hold on Aleppo and consolidated a larger safe zone in the Syrian west for the Alawite regime.
Having established these facts on the ground, Mr. Assad is now well placed to exploit the U.S.-Russia brokered Syrian peace talks. Mr. Assad can continue his offensive against the opposition while making few diplomatic concessions. Mr. Putin has also consolidated his alliance with Iran while diminishing U.S. influence.
By withdrawing some forces, or at least appearing to, Mr. Putin is also hoping to coax concessions from the U.S. and Europe. The Russian wants the West to ease its sanctions against Russia for snatching Ukrainian territory, and he knows Mr. Obama is looking for a way get back to business as usual with Russia. The withdrawal announcement may be an attempt to give Mr. Obama diplomatic cover for one more “reset” in relations before Mr. Obama leaves the White House.
Russia’s intervention won’t end the Syrian civil war, and Islamic State still controls much of the country. But countering terrorism never was Mr. Putin’s goal. He wanted to show the world that Russia stands by its allies and to acquire new leverage in the Middle East and Europe. Any more such quagmires and he’ll be back sipping cocktails at the next G-8 summit.
