Why?
Because there are 1459 delegates available
you need 1237 for nomination as the Republican candidate for President at the convention.
Cruz has 347
Rubio has 151
Kasich has 54
Now add that up.
that is: 347
151
54
total 552
1459
now subtract 552 from the available delegates of 1459
that equals= 907 which is what is left available to get before the convention
now subtract Trump's446 so far
this is how many
actually are left 461
No one can get 1237 because there are only 461 delegates left
and Trump only has 446 so far
So even if Trump got every single delegate left he couldn't win on the first ballot
Because even if he won every single delegate (which is unlikely) he would only have:
907
So, it looks to be a brokered convention according to my calculations already.
So, Trump might be tricked out of the nominee position by tricky Republicans at the convention
even if he does have the most delegates at the convention because he doesn't have and can no longer win 1237 delegates now.
So, this is why 3 candidates stayed in to take the nomination away from him so he couldn't win on the first ballot.
So, my thought is that either Rubio or Kasich will be the nominee at a brokered convention. Because Trump and Cruz are not liked by the Conservative elected base at the RNC.
Hopefully all my calculations are correct because it is late at night and sometimes doing math late at night when you are tired isn't the best idea. So maybe you should double check my calculations.
Though conservatives likely will get Rubio or Kasich as a presidential candidate and nominee it likely will completely destroy the Republican party and new parties likely will form maybe called
"The populist Party" or maybe the Tea Party (separate from the Republicans. So, I think one or two parties likely will fragment from the party at the convention.
And it is very likely that Trump will run as an independent or as the Head of the "Populist party" if the nomination is taken away from him too.
So, anyway you look at it either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders likely will be the next President of the United States.
If they do a witch hunt and put Hillary in Jail to stop her then Bernie Sanders will be the next president of the United States.
But, either way the Republican party is likely over. (at least as we have known it since Abraham Lincoln's time.)
But there is a danger here of the Old Guard Republicans refusing to give up power and threatening our democracy and turning it into a dictatorship or oligarchy rather than give up power after several hundred years of White supremacy in Business and in government. So, there is also a danger of a violent or non-violent coup that turns our nation into a dictatorship in some strange way too.
We see this already in denying voting rights for Blacks or other races not considered white in many of the southern states.
We see this in putting Bush into power when he lacked the popular vote that Gore had by the Supreme Court.
So, we already have seen in manifold ways the old guard preventing democracy from functioning already since 2000.
We have seen this in the Republican old Guard preventing ANY sort of new legislation (good or bad) or even considering a new Supreme Court Justice to be debated before a new president is sworn into office.
However, I presently believe a Republican Congress would not even allow a new Supreme Court Justice to be sworn in EVER if the next president is a Democrat.
Which could fragment our country into 50 different countries over time because of the 4-4 nature of the Supreme Court right now. So, this alone could fragment our country into 50 different countries right there.
So, there is a "Clear and present Danger" regarding the survival of our Democracy in a Republic at this time through about 1 year from now just as certain as there was a problem during the Civil War from 1860 to 1865.
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