- 1 day ago ... A coalition of Republicans is banking on a scenario in which Donald J. ... vote at the convention, so those who were bound to Mr. Trump could ...
Mr. Trump could lose support
as delegates become free
to vote as they please.Most states “bind” their delegates to candidates based on primary results. But most delegates are released if no candidate wins a majority in an initial vote at the convention, so those who were bound to Mr. Trump could shift their support. This scenario is less likely if Mr. Trump is close to 1,237 delegates, or if he continues to face a split opposition.
First voteAt least 5 percent of delegates are not bound to candidates and can vote as they please from the outset.Needed to win95% boundto a candidate5% unboundDid one candidate get a majority of delegates?Yes.That’s it. He’s the nominee.No.Move on to a second vote with some new rules.Second voteAfter the first round of voting, more than half of all delegates, from more than 30 states, become free.
43% boundto a candidate57% unboundDid one candidate get a majority of delegates?Yes.That’s it. He’s the nominee.No.Move on to a third vote with some new rules.Third voteMany states with a large number of delegates (like California, with 172) release them before the third vote.19% boundto a candidate81% unboundDid one candidate get a majority of delegates?Yes.That’s it. He’s the nominee.No.Move on to a fourth vote with some new rules.This could go on for a while, but it’s very unlikely.It would be difficult to get through more votes without one candidate receiving a majority, because many states release their delegates early if candidates withdraw from the race or do not meet a certain vote threshold on the floor, preventing those with low support from remaining in contention.An “eight-state rule”
could come into play.Currently, in addition to securing a majority of delegates, a candidate is required to win more than 50 percent of delegates in at least eight states to secure the nomination. Mr. Trump has already done so in five.However, this rule, or any other, could be changed before the voting begins, putting candidates who do not win a majority in eight states into contention.The people who are selected as
delegates in the first place will be key.Because delegates are free to vote for their candidate of choice once they are unbound, Mr. Trump and some of the other candidates have already begun organizing their supporters to get as many allied delegates as possible selected.
2,472 total delegates7% of delegatesAutomatic delegatesThe three members of the Republican National Committee from each state and territory, the national committeeman, the national committeewoman and the state chairman are automatically selected as delegates.
14% of delegatesDelegates chosen by candidatesIn seven states, including Ohio and California, winning candidates submit their own slate, or list, of representatives.march11% of delegatesapril28%may24%June5%TBD11%The bulk of delegatesThe rest of the delegates are chosen primarily by vote at state or district conventions and meetings, a majority of which are held in April and May.Note: The shares of delegates bound and unbound during each ballot are estimates and could differ based on additional state rules that free delegates earlier based on other factors. There are additional delegates whose choices are not tied to election results and who are only bound to candidates if they declare support for them.
The timing of delegate selection is estimated from state rules compiled by the Republican Party. Some dates are expressed as deadlines, so some delegates could be selected earlier than shown above.
Sources: Frontloading HQ; Green Papers; Republican Party
Thursday, March 10, 2016
Why Trump might not be the nominee
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