Iraq, three years after U.S. withdrawal
How
bad is the situation? It's extremely grim. When U.S. soldiers withdrew
in 2011, President Obama boasted they were "leaving behind a sovereign,
stable, and self-reliant Iraq." Three years later, the country is under
the thumb of an authoritarian ruler, riddled with corruption, and
trapped in…
Iraq, three years after U.S. withdrawal
Things are not going well
Bombs, insurgents, instability... sound familiar?
(AP Photo)
How bad is the situation?It's
extremely grim. When U.S. soldiers withdrew in 2011, President Obama
boasted they were "leaving behind a sovereign, stable, and self-reliant
Iraq." Three years later, the country is under the thumb of an
authoritarian ruler, riddled with corruption, and trapped in horrific
sectarian violence. Nearly every day, mammoth explosions rock the
capital, Baghdad, and other cities, tearing apart restaurants, public
markets, and government buildings; in April alone, 750 Iraqis were
killed in bombings or in the fighting between government forces and a
formidable Sunni extremist insurgency. If the increasingly authoritarian
Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki manages to secure victory in
April 30's parliamentary elections — the results of which will not be
known for weeks — it could ignite a full-fledged civil war. "We were
happy when the old dictator went," said Ramadi resident Faleh Shahooth,
referring to the 2003 toppling of Saddam Hussein. "But democracy has
brought a new dictator. If the election produces the same thieves again,
then it's time for revolution."
What kind of leader is al-Maliki?In
power since 2006, al-Maliki secured re-election in 2010 by promising to
form a national "unity" government with his rivals from the Sunni
minority, who had previously governed Iraq under Saddam's Ba'athist
regime. But within days of America's withdrawal, al-Maliki instigated a
brutal crackdown on Sunnis from his vice president downward, purging the
Iraqi National Intelligence Service and the government of sectarian
rivals. Tens of thousands of political prisoners now wallow in Iraq's
jails, while al-Maliki — who has declared himself commander in chief —
has built up a series of intelligence files on his political opponents,
ready to "call them out," in his words, if they dare criticize him.
"Maliki could have been a historic figure," said former Vice President
Adil Abdul-Mahdi. "The Shiites supported him; he had the support of the
Sunnis and the Kurds." Instead, he has alienated large swaths of the
population, and opened the door to a resurgence of Islamic militants.
Jihadists from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), an al
Qaeda–affiliated organization, are now firmly in control of Anbar
province, the hard-won western Sunni heartland where some 1,300 U.S.
soldiers lost their lives. ISIS is also waging war in neighboring Syria
as part of a wider regional Sunni-Shiite struggle.
What about corruption?It's blatant
and widespread. In fact, al-Maliki's government has become a symbol of
bribery and theft, with corrupt politicians siphoning off millions of
dollars' worth of oil revenues from within the comfort of Baghdad's
Green Zone. Abdul-Mahdi estimates that almost $220 billion has been
allocated in the last few years to some 6,000 shady government projects,
and another $70 billion in government loans has been handed out without
being repaid. "The corruption is unbelievable," says political
scientist Ghassan al-Atiyyah. "You can't get a job in the army or the
government unless you pay; you can't even get out of prison unless you
pay." That, combined with a dire lack of public services — including
constant electricity shortages — has led to the sense that the overall
standard of life in Iraq has only deteriorated since Saddam was toppled.
Are women at least better off?Their
political situation has improved: Under Iraq's postwar constitution,
women are guaranteed 25 percent of the seats in parliament. But as
conservative Shiite forces have gained a foothold within the government,
the average female Iraqi has found herself with fewer rights than under
Saddam. More than a quarter of women over the age of 12 in Iraq are
illiterate; only 14 percent are either working or actively seeking
employment. Perhaps the greatest symbol of Iraqi women's plight today is
the Jaafari Personal Status Law, draft legislation approved by Iraq's
Council of Ministers in February that lowers the marriage age for girls
to 9, forbids women from leaving their homes without their husbands'
consent, and legalizes marital rape. "This law means humiliation for
women and for Iraqis in general," said female legislator Safia
al-Suhail. "It shows that we are going backwards."
Will the elections change anything?That
all depends on who wins. If al-Maliki gets a plurality of votes and
remains prime minister, more division and bloodshed are inevitable. He
has already insisted he will use all his "energy and effort" to keep his
fellow Shiites in full control, and spurn a "unity" coalition
government with his Sunni and Kurdish rivals. Having painted himself as a
heroic fighter against the Sunni "terrorists," al-Maliki enjoys
significant support among the Shiite population, but is widely loathed
among Sunnis, who see him as a despot and Iranian stooge. Backroom
negotiations to select a prime minister are expected to take months,
during which time al-Maliki is likely to use his considerable influence
over Iraq's judiciary to get his desired result. "If we know anything
about Prime Minister Maliki," said Ahmed Ali, an Iraq analyst at the
Institute for the Study of War, "it's that he doesn't retreat easily."
The Kurdish success storyOne part of Iraq has
proved a surprising exception to the country's grim norm: the
semi-autonomous Kurdish region, which lies 200 miles north of Baghdad.
Kurdish Iraq is largely peaceful, prosperous, democratic, and secular.
Corruption exists, but at a tolerable level: "In Kurdistan, the leaders
steal about 20 percent," a Kurdish local told The New Yorker,
"but 80 percent makes it to the people. In Baghdad, the percentages are
reversed." Although already effectively independent from Iraq's central
government, the Kurdish regional government has until this point
eschewed formal independence in order to capitalize on Baghdad's oil
revenues. But having apparently discovered its own huge oil reserves,
the regional government is increasingly considering splitting with its
violent southern neighbors. "We are talking about a culture of life,"
said Fuad Hussein, the Kurdish prime minister's chief of staff. "They
are busy with a culture of death."
Frances Weaver is a senior editor at The Week magazine. Originally from the U.K., she has written for the Daily Telegraph, The Spectator and Standpoint magazine.
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