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El Niño poised to let fly with another deluge
Updated 5:41 pm, Wednesday, March 9, 2016
A woman carries an umbrella on Center Street during a light rain in Berkeley, Calif. on Wednesday, March 9, 2016.
After the closely watched climate pattern failed to deliver big February rains for California, March just might host the miracle that the drought-weary state needs — and then some.
Forecasters say a series of powerful storms between Thursday and Monday will bring not only several inches of rain to Northern California — adding to the impressive precipitation totals from last weekend — but the possibility of high winds, damaging downpours and flooding.
“With the rain that we’re expecting, we could see hazardous conditions,” said Roger Gass, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Monterey. “We will see some breaks in the rainfall, though, which will help the situation.”
The wallop is forecast for the region Thursday morning, with rain arriving in the North Bay early and farther south by the afternoon. Showers will linger through Friday and Saturday before another serious soaker arrives Sunday, according to the weather service.
In the Sierra, snowstorms are expected, initially above 7,000 feet but as low as 3,000 feet by Monday.
The sloshy forecast follows the wet weather last weekend that brought several feet of snow to the Sierra and more than 10 inches of rain to some mountainous spots in the Bay Area.
On Sunday alone, Lake Oroville added 34 billion gallons of water to its cache, its biggest one-day increase since 2004 and enough water to supply 260,000 households for a year, according to the California Department of Water Resources.
The state’s dramatic change in weather since February, when many areas recorded less than an inch of rain during what’s historically one of the wettest months, is due to a shifting storm track over the Pacific.
“It’s no longer aimed at the Northwest. It’s aimed at us, specifically the northern half of California,” said Daniel Swain, a climate researcher at Stanford University.
This year’s strong El Niño was widely expected to drench California due to a more southerly storm track fueled by the event’s signature warm water in the tropics.
But while wet weather rolled in during January, the storm track strayed north in February, Swain said, leaving March — and maybe April — as the final hope that El Niño will live up to its lofty expectations.
“Given this ongoing series of storms now, we may actually end the (rain) year above average after all,” said Swain. “Snow is starting to get close and may be back up to average, too.”
While the Bay Area and much of California has so far seen below-average rain for the season, rainfall in the mountains — where most of the big reservoirs are — has been up. The state’s eight-station index in the northern Sierra logged precipitation at 115 percent of average for the date as of Wednesday.
Snow, which is equally critical because it also provides water storage, is a slightly different story. On Wednesday, the snowpack in the Sierra measured 83 percent of normal for the season.
California water managers have estimated that in order to break the drought, both rain and snow need to be close to 150 percent of average.
If the season falls short, statewide water restrictions are likely to remain in place for cities and towns, and the massive water projects serving California’s vast agricultural industry are bound to significantly cut deliveries.
“Maybe the storms heading to California in the next few days will significantly impact conditions and give water managers some optimism,” said Doug Carlson, a spokesman for the Department of Water Resources. “But it’s still a waiting game. We just don’t know yet.”
Kurtis Alexander is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: kalexander@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @kurtisalexander
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