Street by street, Assad extends grip in central Syria
Foreign allies help president hold or retake chain of cities forming backbone of country
An
fighter from the Islamist Syrian rebel group Jabhat al-Nusra talks on a
walkie-talkie on the frontline in northern Idlib province. Photograph:
Hamid Khatib/Reuters
From his base in Damascus, Bashar al-Assad can contemplate a broad sweep of Syria clawed back from rebels who once threatened to drive him out.
The capital which they targeted is now plastered with posters inviting Syrians to reelect him president.
Powerful foreign allies have helped Dr Assad hold or retake a chain of
cities which form the north-south backbone of the country, keep his grip
on the Mediterranean coast to the west and restore control over the
Lebanese border.
The culmination of that slow, grinding military turnaround came last
week with the final withdrawal of rebel fighters from Homs city, a month
before the presidential election in which Dr Assad faces no serious
challenge.
His foes dismiss the June 3rd vote as a farce, saying the huge areas
still beyond his command make a credible vote impossible, but the fact
that authorities can consider a notionally countrywide ballot reveals
their growing confidence.
One of the two candidates officially approved to run against Dr Assad
said the overwhelming majority of Syrians would be able to vote,
downplaying the fighting that still kills around 200 people a day and
the almost three million who have fled.
“In the middle of the country the situation is perfect for election. On
the coast the situation is very good. In the southern part of Syria the
situation is getting better,” said Hassan al-Nouri, a US-educated
former minister of state.
The military respite has come at a cost. Dr Assad’s foreign Shia
supporters have often taken the lead in battle, leaving his own forces
to play a peripheral role against rebels who are themselves increasingly
directed by outside Sunni powers.
Whoever pulls the strings, though, the long term momentum is clear.
Rebels have fought Dr Assad’s forces in Homs city since the early days
of the uprising in 2011. Until a year ago they held territory along the
main highway from Homs to Damascus and controlled the capital’s eastern
and southern suburbs.
Now that they have pulled out of Syria’s third biggest city, battered
by years of bombardment, siege and retreat, Dr Assad’s hold over the
heart of the country is tighter than it has ever been since protests
against his rule turned to armed insurgency.
On the fringes, rebels still pose a deadly challenge, holding parts of
Aleppo and Deraa at the northern and southern tips of that backbone of
Syrian cities.
Most of the northern border with Turkey is also in rebel hands, as are
swathes of northern Syria, the eastern oilfields and farmlands, and
southern areas close to Jordanian border and the Golan Heights.
Dr Assad’s enemies make much of the fact that the territory under his
control may only account for a third of the country, but it forms an
increasingly coherent core, linked by secure road connections, where a
semblances of normality exists and the great majority of the population
now lives.
By contrast the rebel-held land - riven with internecine fighting and
battered by waves of Dr Assad’s aerial bombardment - offers neither
security to the population nor a military platform to strike against his
strongholds.
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Street by street, Assad extends grip
I think that the war will not end for a whole lot of reasons. However, it likely will become more and more of a hit and run guerrilla war in the future with rebels crossing borders to blow up towns and Assad's military bases and the like.
I think Assad likely now will remain basically in power but because of all the carnage and vendettas against him now from literally all Sunni nations this will go on for years and years but not with the same ferocity as before.
Iran sees it physical survival tied to both a Shia Iraq and a Shia led Syria. That Iran would pay Afghans $500 a month to fight for Assad to stay in power says a lot about what is happening here in itself. Also, it is in Russia's interests also to keep Assad in power no matter what the people of Syria actually want. Without Russia and Iran and Lebanon supplying so much money and soldiers Assad would have been gone already a year or two ago. But, with rich countries willing to do almost anything to keep him in power this likely now will go on for years and years but in a different way than before. Because even more countries are willing to spend millions and likely billions to remove Assad from power. So, this thing likely will never end the way it presently is going.
And because it could be 10, 20 or even 30 years or more before this settles down the 9 million displaced Syrians might just stay displaced or have to move to other countries to survive all this. This is an ongoing mess that looks now like it might never end for about 1000 reasons.
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