USA TODAY
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U.S. analyst is skeptical that Russian President Vladimir Putin will
stick to a pledge made Friday to "respect' the outcome of Ukraine's
presidential election on Sunday.
U.S.
analysts are skeptical that Russian President Vladimir Putin will stick
to a pledge made Friday to "respect' the outcome of Ukraine's
presidential election on Sunday.
The Russian leader, speaking at an investment forum in St. Petersburg, slammed the West over its involvement in Ukraine -- and its economic sanctions against Moscow -- but said Russia is ready to work with the new leadership in Kiev.
"We understand that the people of Ukraine want their country to emerge from this crisis. We will treat their choice with respect," he said.
"It would have been better to hold a referendum and adopt a new constitution," Putin added. "Under the current constitution (Viktor) Yanukovych is still in power."
Putin on Monday announced that Russian troops were ordered to withdraw from near Ukraine's eastern border, which NATO says has yet to happen. He called for a decrease in violence by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, while violence there has increased, said Danish economist Anders Aslund of the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington.
What Putin is really saying is "we will cause as much trouble as we can without fully investing ourselves," Aslund said. "If the elections work out then we will try something else."
Putin will try to have it both ways, says Damon Wilson, an advisor on Russia and European affairs in the administrations of George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, now at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.
He may "respect" Ukrainian elections because of their inevitability, meaning he will recognize Ukraine as a sovereign nation represented by a legitimate government. Wilson said. "At the same time, it's disingenuous to think he's not try to influence what's happening inside Ukraine."
Putin will continue to push for federalization, a concept all Ukrainian presidential candidates have endorsed for improved efficiency, but that Putin seeks to reduce the central government's ability to function, Wilson said. He will continue to use energy and economics as a leverage of influence, and to buy members of parliament like he's done in the past, Wilson said.
And Putin will keep in the wings both his forces across the border and special forces "able to manipulate and wreak havoc inside Ukraine," Wilson said. "That remains as a coercive thing over the head of Ukraine."
Putin's statement is timed to forestall a next round of sanctions prepared by U.S. and European Union officials that would target broad sectors of Russia's banking and energy sectors that will be ready to implement as early as Monday, Wilson said, citing private conversations with U.S. officials.
The elections scheduled for Sunday were part of an agreement, reached by Ukraine, Russia and members of the European Union, which ended massive protests in Kiev in February.
Under the agreement, Yanukovych, a Putin ally, would have remained in office until the voting. But after he hurriedly fled Kiev and was formally removed from office by Ukraine's parliament, Russia charged that he had been illegally ousted in a coup and distanced itself from the agreement.
Putin's comments Friday were the first time since Russia's subsequent annexation of the Ukrainian region of Crimea that the Kremlin has reiterated its support for Ukraine's elections.
His remarks appeared to be aimed at trying to reassure an audience already skittish over the Ukraine crisis and its impact on economic relations between the West and Russia. The chief executives of more than three dozen international firms canceled their plans to attend the annual forum following appeals from the U.S. government to boycott the event.
In his public comments, Putin also called on the interim government in Kiev to end its military operation against pro-Russian separatists in the east who have seized government buildings and fought government troops for more than a month.
"(Armored personnel carriers) are firing there and journalists are being captured and detained … What are the conditions for holding the elections?" he asked.
In the deadliest attack yet, pro-Russia insurgents attacked a military checkpoint and killed 16 soldiers Thursday, casting a shadow over the presidential vote.
In Kiev, Ukraine's acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, on Friday urged all voters to take part in the crucial ballot to "cement the foundation of our nation."
"Today, we are building a new European country the foundation of which was laid by millions of Ukrainians who proved that they are capable of defending their own choice and their country," said Turchynov, who is not running for president.
"We will never allow anyone to rob us of our freedom and independence, turn our Ukraine into a part of the post-Soviet empire."
Putin's remarks were the latest in what appeared to be steps -- at least in public -- by the Kremlin in the past two weeks to ease the crisis over Ukraine.
The Russian leader had called for separatists to postpone their vote on secession and said he had ordered Russian troops massed at the border to withdraw from the border and return to their bases.
Although the separatists went ahead with their independence vote and claimed overwhelming support in the areas heavily populated by ethnic Russians, Moscow -- unlike in Crimea -- has not taken steps to annex the area.
Sunday's elections may be a turning point because "nobody can argue after decent democratic elections that Ukraine doesn't have a legitimate government," Aslund said. "The whole Russian argument becomes obviously incorrect…. this would make it so Russia cannot continue to create chaos in Ukraine."
Separatists will prevent 7% of Ukraine's voters from reaching polls in areas they control, but the remainder of Ukraine's elections are likely to be well-run, with high voter participation and a large international observer presence – meaning Putin will be hard pressed to challenge their legitimacy, Aslund says.
Yet, Putin "is a very good improviser" who might back off a little but he won't stop trying to influence Ukraine," where he has invested heavily, Aslund said. "He will try to work on Ukraine in another way, there are so many Russian agents in Ukraine that this won't be very hard."
Ukrainian security services have arrested 20 Russian agents. They have published a trove of phone calls between Russian operatives in Ukraine receiving orders from five Russian military intelligence centers. And several leaders of separatists in the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk are known Russian citizens, including Igor Strelkopf, commander of the so-called People's Republic of Donetsk, is a Russian GRU colonel, Aslund said.
Putin also used the economic forum as an opportunity to discuss the West's policy of targeted economic sanctions against Russia, which he said was illegal and "destabilizes the situation in our relations with the U.S. and the European Union."
"Yes, of course, we felt the impact of the sanctions, we should be frank about that," he said in response to a question on a panel, but stressed that they had "no systemic impact on our economy."
In a slap at the West over the Ukraine dispute, Putin said Russia is "going to focus on Eurasian investment" from now on, according to Putin.
Gazprom, the state-backed gas giant, signed a 30-year, $400 billion deal this week to supply gas to China.
Russia is a major supplier of natural gas to Europe, but the crisis over Ukraine has prompted Europe to begin to seek other suppliers.
The Kremlin leader told the forum that the current crisis over Ukraine, and its threat to European gas supply, is "not due to Russia but to the situation in the Ukraine, which abuses its position."
Contributing: Associated Press
end quote from:
The Russian leader, speaking at an investment forum in St. Petersburg, slammed the West over its involvement in Ukraine -- and its economic sanctions against Moscow -- but said Russia is ready to work with the new leadership in Kiev.
"We understand that the people of Ukraine want their country to emerge from this crisis. We will treat their choice with respect," he said.
"It would have been better to hold a referendum and adopt a new constitution," Putin added. "Under the current constitution (Viktor) Yanukovych is still in power."
Putin on Monday announced that Russian troops were ordered to withdraw from near Ukraine's eastern border, which NATO says has yet to happen. He called for a decrease in violence by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, while violence there has increased, said Danish economist Anders Aslund of the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington.
What Putin is really saying is "we will cause as much trouble as we can without fully investing ourselves," Aslund said. "If the elections work out then we will try something else."
Putin will try to have it both ways, says Damon Wilson, an advisor on Russia and European affairs in the administrations of George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, now at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.
He may "respect" Ukrainian elections because of their inevitability, meaning he will recognize Ukraine as a sovereign nation represented by a legitimate government. Wilson said. "At the same time, it's disingenuous to think he's not try to influence what's happening inside Ukraine."
Putin will continue to push for federalization, a concept all Ukrainian presidential candidates have endorsed for improved efficiency, but that Putin seeks to reduce the central government's ability to function, Wilson said. He will continue to use energy and economics as a leverage of influence, and to buy members of parliament like he's done in the past, Wilson said.
And Putin will keep in the wings both his forces across the border and special forces "able to manipulate and wreak havoc inside Ukraine," Wilson said. "That remains as a coercive thing over the head of Ukraine."
Putin's statement is timed to forestall a next round of sanctions prepared by U.S. and European Union officials that would target broad sectors of Russia's banking and energy sectors that will be ready to implement as early as Monday, Wilson said, citing private conversations with U.S. officials.
The elections scheduled for Sunday were part of an agreement, reached by Ukraine, Russia and members of the European Union, which ended massive protests in Kiev in February.
Under the agreement, Yanukovych, a Putin ally, would have remained in office until the voting. But after he hurriedly fled Kiev and was formally removed from office by Ukraine's parliament, Russia charged that he had been illegally ousted in a coup and distanced itself from the agreement.
Putin's comments Friday were the first time since Russia's subsequent annexation of the Ukrainian region of Crimea that the Kremlin has reiterated its support for Ukraine's elections.
His remarks appeared to be aimed at trying to reassure an audience already skittish over the Ukraine crisis and its impact on economic relations between the West and Russia. The chief executives of more than three dozen international firms canceled their plans to attend the annual forum following appeals from the U.S. government to boycott the event.
In his public comments, Putin also called on the interim government in Kiev to end its military operation against pro-Russian separatists in the east who have seized government buildings and fought government troops for more than a month.
"(Armored personnel carriers) are firing there and journalists are being captured and detained … What are the conditions for holding the elections?" he asked.
In the deadliest attack yet, pro-Russia insurgents attacked a military checkpoint and killed 16 soldiers Thursday, casting a shadow over the presidential vote.
In Kiev, Ukraine's acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, on Friday urged all voters to take part in the crucial ballot to "cement the foundation of our nation."
"Today, we are building a new European country the foundation of which was laid by millions of Ukrainians who proved that they are capable of defending their own choice and their country," said Turchynov, who is not running for president.
"We will never allow anyone to rob us of our freedom and independence, turn our Ukraine into a part of the post-Soviet empire."
Putin's remarks were the latest in what appeared to be steps -- at least in public -- by the Kremlin in the past two weeks to ease the crisis over Ukraine.
The Russian leader had called for separatists to postpone their vote on secession and said he had ordered Russian troops massed at the border to withdraw from the border and return to their bases.
Although the separatists went ahead with their independence vote and claimed overwhelming support in the areas heavily populated by ethnic Russians, Moscow -- unlike in Crimea -- has not taken steps to annex the area.
Sunday's elections may be a turning point because "nobody can argue after decent democratic elections that Ukraine doesn't have a legitimate government," Aslund said. "The whole Russian argument becomes obviously incorrect…. this would make it so Russia cannot continue to create chaos in Ukraine."
Separatists will prevent 7% of Ukraine's voters from reaching polls in areas they control, but the remainder of Ukraine's elections are likely to be well-run, with high voter participation and a large international observer presence – meaning Putin will be hard pressed to challenge their legitimacy, Aslund says.
Yet, Putin "is a very good improviser" who might back off a little but he won't stop trying to influence Ukraine," where he has invested heavily, Aslund said. "He will try to work on Ukraine in another way, there are so many Russian agents in Ukraine that this won't be very hard."
Ukrainian security services have arrested 20 Russian agents. They have published a trove of phone calls between Russian operatives in Ukraine receiving orders from five Russian military intelligence centers. And several leaders of separatists in the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk are known Russian citizens, including Igor Strelkopf, commander of the so-called People's Republic of Donetsk, is a Russian GRU colonel, Aslund said.
Putin also used the economic forum as an opportunity to discuss the West's policy of targeted economic sanctions against Russia, which he said was illegal and "destabilizes the situation in our relations with the U.S. and the European Union."
"Yes, of course, we felt the impact of the sanctions, we should be frank about that," he said in response to a question on a panel, but stressed that they had "no systemic impact on our economy."
In a slap at the West over the Ukraine dispute, Putin said Russia is "going to focus on Eurasian investment" from now on, according to Putin.
Gazprom, the state-backed gas giant, signed a 30-year, $400 billion deal this week to supply gas to China.
Russia is a major supplier of natural gas to Europe, but the crisis over Ukraine has prompted Europe to begin to seek other suppliers.
The Kremlin leader told the forum that the current crisis over Ukraine, and its threat to European gas supply, is "not due to Russia but to the situation in the Ukraine, which abuses its position."
Contributing: Associated Press
end quote from:
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