NATO, facing assertive Russia, ponders what to do
BRUSSELS
(AP) — Russia's ongoing confrontation with the West has ignited debate
inside and outside the U.S.-led NATO alliance about what its
responsibilities are, and how much of its time and effort should be
spent to prepare for and if necessary counter Russian President Vladimir
Putin's military…
NATO, facing assertive Russia, ponders what to do
By JOHN-THOR DAHLBURG
57 minutes ago
BRUSSELS (AP) — Russia's
ongoing confrontation with the West has ignited debate inside and
outside the U.S.-led NATO alliance about what its responsibilities are,
and how much of its time and effort should be spent to prepare for and
if necessary counter Russian President Vladimir Putin's military
ambitions.
Ian Lesser,
senior director for foreign and security policy at the German Marshall
Fund of the United States, said NATO must remain mindful of other modern
security challenges, including cyberterrorism, threats to energy
supplies and armed Islamic extremism.
But
he predicted the trans-Atlantic alliance's focus will shift
dramatically because of what he termed the biggest game changer in
European security and defense environment in 20 years: Russia's armed
aggression in Crimea and the Kremlin's continuing military pressure on
Ukraine.
"Today we have a
situation in which Russia and especially the Russian leadership is
highly unpredictable," Lesser said. "There is something about the
current crisis that suggests Russia is a rogue state, with all that
would imply for deterrence and reassurance of allies."
As
the alliance ponders how to react in Europe after years of fielding
operations in the Middle East, Africa and Afghanistan, one of NATO's top
commanders told The Associated Press that Russia's demonstrated ability
to swiftly mobilize large numbers of troops in so-called snap exercises
and Moscow's uncertain intentions have forced a rethink of NATO's
capacity to respond and the deployment of its forces.
"What I am
thinking about now is, is NATO correctly positioned and is it at the
right state of responsiveness?" U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove,
NATO's supreme commander in Europe, said in a recent interview. "If we
expect that Mr. Putin is going to be in charge of Russia for many years,
if we are going to see this kind of exercise behavior in the future,
are we prepared to react to the next snap exercise that goes across a
border to impose its will on another sovereign nation in a different
part of Europe? That's what I've been doing a lot of thinking about."Already, NATO has reinforced its Baltic air patrols, put AWACS surveillance planes in the skies over Poland and Romania, dispatched warships to the Baltic and Black seas and sent 600 U.S. Army paratroopers to Poland and the Baltic states on temporary deployment.
Discussions are under way on
longer-term measures, and how NATO must reposition, retool and
otherwise react to the new challenge from Moscow will be the most
pressing question on the agenda when President Barack Obama and leaders
of the alliance's 27 other member nations gather for a summit in Wales
this September.
During a visit to Canada this week, Breedlove said
he wants the political leaders to think about permanently stationing
alliance forces in Eastern Europe to reinforce local defense
capabilities."I think this is something that we have to consider, and we will tee this up for discussion through the leaderships of our nations and see where that leads," Breedlove said Wednesday in Ottawa.
If
American fighting men and women are part of a new NATO mix in Eastern
Europe, it could mean a halt, or even reversal, of the drastic U.S.
military drawdown in Europe that began in the early 1990s as tensions
between the West and Soviet Union ebbed.
From a peak of more than
420,000 uniformed personnel at the height of the Cold War, the U.S.
presence in Europe has dropped to around 68,000 active-duty men and
women of all branches, according to figures provided this week by the
U.S. European Command.A year ago, the last 22 U.S. main battle tanks in Europe were shipped home.
Ironically, the new
challenge from Russia comes as some inside and outside NATO were
wondering what the alliance was going to do once the biggest operation
in its history, combating Islamic extremism in Afghanistan and helping
foster political and social stability there, is due to come to an end
this December.
For some analysts, the alliance's decision to take
on military and stabilization tasks in such faraway places distracted it
from its chief responsibility: keeping its own members safe."I think NATO drifted away from its core mission," Michael E. Brown, dean of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, said. "It took on an array of global missions that proved to be very challenging for it. Now it's being forced to do what it should have been doing all along, and that's deterrence."
The last time the leaders of NATO nations met, in May 2012 in Chicago, they expressed hope of forging a "true strategic partnership between NATO and Russia." Russia's use of force to achieve the unilateral annexation in Crimea, its continuing military intimidation of Ukraine and Moscow's alleged interference in that country's ethnically restive east have dispelled those rosy dreams.
Putin's
government, NATO officials say, is now acting more like an adversary
than a partner, and poses the greatest threat to European security since
the Soviet Union's collapse.
Asked this week by the AP whether
the alliance has come full circle and must make dealing with Russia its
No. 1 priority again, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen
replied, "Effective defense and protection of our allies remains a core
task for NATO. It's been the essence of our alliance since it was
established 65 years ago."But Fogh Rasmussen immediately added that the military alliance formed in the uncertain early years of the Cold War has given itself important additional responsibilities since the demise of the Soviet bloc. Those may have nothing to do with the Russians.
"Another task is to
be able to participate in international crisis management, and we have
also defined cooperative security as one of our core tasks," Fogh
Rasmussen said. "And we will continue to carry out those tasks as well."
Ivo
Daalder, the U.S. permanent representative to NATO in 2009-2013, said
in an interview that NATO simply can't go back to being obsessed with
Russia all the time because of other global security challenges,
including the Arab Spring.
Daalder
also said today's Russia isn't the Soviet Union — it doesn't have the
global ideological reach, or even the same military capability.
"Putin
is not the organizing principle of our foreign and security policy, and
never will be," Daalder said. "He's not important enough. He's not
strong enough."One important variable that's still unknown is whether many European allies are willing to increase their defense spending. Fogh Rasmussen has called Russian conduct toward Ukraine a "wake-up call" that means it is time for Europe to end years of skimping on military expenditures. In the same timespan that Russia has boosted defense outlays by 30 percent, some NATO countries have cut theirs by 40 percent, he has complained.
On Friday, Fogh Rasmussen said during a speech in Tallinn, Estonia, that Latvia, Lithuania and Romania have now joined Estonia in committing themselves to increased defense spending.
"And I'm confident that other allies will do so too," the NATO secretary general said. "Because defense matters. Security is precious. Freedom is priceless — and it doesn't come for free."
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