After U.K. Election, The Only 'Certainty' In Britain Is Uncertainty
Ballot boxes are emptied to be counted for the general election in Glasgow, Scotland.
Andrew Milligan/AP
Standing outside 10 Downing St. today, Britain's Prime Minister
Theresa May tried to put a brave face on the disastrous results of
Thursday's vote.
After calling a snap election in April in anticipation of a
landslide, she ended up with an electoral train wreck, in which her
Conservative Party actually lost its parliamentary majority. It now
holds 318 seats.
Clinging to power, May said the Tories would
form a minority government with the Democratic Unionist Party of
Northern Ireland, which won 10 seats.
"What the country needs more than ever is certainty," she said.
Democratic Unionist Party leader Arlene Foster speaks at
a press conference in Belfast, Northern Ireland, on Friday. Prime
Minister Theresa May says she's forming an alliance with the Democratic
Unionist Party to stay in power.
Peter Morrison/AP
For instance, Menon said, some pro-EU Conservative legislators may
wait until the Brexit legislative program comes to Parliament to start
attacking it.
"I think the Conservative party as a whole is
reluctant to get rid of Theresa May now because it would mean a
leadership election, it would mean stalling on Brexit talks," Menon
said. "But at the same time, she's very, very weak. So whether they can
hold a weak leader in place — tactically, as it were — until they are
ready to move, I don't know."
In Brussels, home of the EU, there was a mix of puzzlement, confusion and frustration over the chaos of British politics.
Donald
Tusk, president of the European Commission, urged the May government to
get on with negotiations, noting that the U.K. has less than two years
to extricate itself from the EU — which is considered a gargantuan task.
"We don't know when Brexit talks start,"
Tusk tweeted. But "we know when they must end. Do your best to avoid a 'no deal' as result of 'no negotiations.'"
Given
May's diminished state, many in the European Union are wondering how
long she will be leading the country and – by extension – guiding the
Brexit negotiations.
"How do you negotiate when you know that
the position of the partner that you're negotiating with is extremely
weak?" says Klaas of the London School of Economics.
Some in
Brussels may see this as an opportunity to drive a hard deal and dictate
terms, Klass believes, while others may worry a weak prime minister
won't be able to get parliamentary approval for a tough deal.
If
all this uncertainty weren't enough, the Labour Party, which won 261
seats in the election, has its own divisions to deal with. And the
relationship between the Conservatives and its minority government
partner, the Democratic Unionist Party, also remains unclear.
The
DUP is skeptical of Europe and is pro-Brexit. But it is also deeply
worried that splitting from the EU will mean a return to a hard border
across Ireland that could create economic and even political problems.
With the DUP providing the Conservatives a narrow, but crucial, majority in Parliament, it could have an outsized influence.
At a press conference today, DUP leader Arlene Foster was vague about a working relationship with May's Conservatives.
"The
prime minister has spoken with me this morning," Foster said. "We will
enter discussions with the Conservatives to explore how it may be
possible to bring stability to our nation at this time of great
challenge."
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