pandemic

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124061694466055035.html

The whole world should be watching carefully what happens in Mexico City in case this virus cannot be contained inside of Mexico. It is time for all parts of earth to activate plans to deal with this if this actually becomes a worldwide pandemic.

The last time a big pandemic struck it was about 1918 and killed 50 million people worldwide then. If this becomes a pandemic a likely way to calculate how many might be taken out this time is to figure the population of earth in 1918 and find out what percentage of people 50 million were then and then apply that percentage to the present population base.


The answer is that 50 million people died when there were 1.8 billion people on earth in 1918. So the percentage is .027777778 or rounded of to .028 or 2.8 percent. I think the actual amount of people on earth is about 6.5 Billion now. However, to make it easier I will say it is 7 billion.

2.8 percent of 7 billion is I believe 196 million or about twice the war dead for all reasons in World War II. So this is no small thing and it is likely that every person on earth under those circumstances would lose at least one friend or relative or acquaintance. So the more prepared we are worldwide the better. Remember this number is a potential number given what happened in 1918 that is all. However, it is very sobering.

Since the last Pandemic was not 1918 but 1968 when the Hong Kong Flu killed 1,000,000 worldwide, this might be what happens this time as well if a pandemic were to start now or even 50 years from now. Since the world population was 3.5 billion approximately then in 1968 and since it is almost double that now, it could be possible that a pandemic might take out 2,000,000 now that the world population nears 7 billion.

However, all this in a way is useless speculation. The dynamics of each pandemic is obviously different than the last. Education and communication is obviously much swifter because of internet, TV, Newspapers and news magazines etc. So it is possible for the world to know things even as they are happening just like when 9-11 occurred.

So, if enough governments are on top of this problem there may be a way to keep it from spreading out of Mexico city very much. Also, so far no one has died outside of Mexico from the present flu strain or strains so that is a good thing too so far.