Saturday, February 18, 2012

World War: A Clear and Present Danger

Here is the problem: China, the U.S. and Europe need cheaper oil in order to keep their economies functioning. Russia needs more expensive oil to keep its economy running smoothly because the Russian economy is based upon selling oil. But, right now the most desperate for cheap oil is Europe because of it's ongoing recession and downright downturn into possible depression which has already started in Greece which could infect Italy Portugal and others.

Because of this increasing desperation in Europe for a good future, likely we will see first France lead the way with a coalition of first food and then military intervention in Syria. Though on a humanitarian level this is important to protect Syrians from  Assad and the Iranian Guard killing Sunni civilians right now in Syria, it also triggers other international actions as well. On just an oil level China and Russia are at odds with each other. China needs more cheap oil to continue its growth and Russia needs ever higher oil prices to continue its growth so expect to see anger from China towards Russia regarding this as the price of oil climbs towards this summer. Obama is unlikely to get the U.S. involved in another war this time with Syria and Iran because it is an election year. But expect to see at the very least Israel and France make a joint move to protect Syrians and to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. At this point expect Iran to blockade the Strait of Hormuz which will bring in the U.S. which cannot allow the strait of Hormuz to be blocked. At this point  Saudi Arabia will be compromised by Iran and have to decide whether to declare war on Iran or not. Iran will threaten Saudi Arabia with war if they don't stop shipping oil to the world. China and the U.S. and others cannot let this happen and this is the point where world war might be triggered when all oil from Iran and Saudi Arabia stops flowing to the world.

No comments: