Monday, April 11, 2016

Political prediction market

    begin quote from:
      GOP Convention 1st Vote
      produces no nominee incl. unbound delegates
      81%
      live odds

      Will the odds go up or down?
      Republicans
      to win Presidency
      24%
      live odds

      Will the odds go up or down?
      Democrats
      to win Presidency
      76%
      live odds

      Will the odds go up or down?

      Political Prediction Market

      Republicans
      to retain control of the House
      90%
      live odds

      Will the odds go up or down?
      Democrats
      to take control of the House
      10%
      live odds

      Will the odds go up or down?
      Republicans
      to retain Senate majority
      59%
      live odds

      Will the odds go up or down?
      Democrats
      to take Senate majority
      41%
      live odds

      Will the odds go up or down?

Republicans 

    Ted Cruz
    to be Republican nominee
    43%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to be Republican nominee
    52%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to be Republican nominee
    2%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?

Democrats 

    Bernie Sanders
    to be Democratic nominee
    14%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Hillary Clinton
    to be Democratic nominee
    85%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?

Who will be president? 

    Hillary Clinton
    to be the next US President
    70%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to be the next US President
    11%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Bernie Sanders
    to be the next US President
    6%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to be the next US President
    11%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?

Upcoming primaries 

    Donald Trump
    to win New York Republican Primary
    99%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win New York Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win New York Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Hillary Clinton
    to win New York Democratic Primary
    86%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Bernie Sanders
    to win New York Democratic Primary
    14%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win Connecticut Republican Primary
    94%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win Connecticut Republican Primary
    4%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win Connecticut Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Hillary Clinton
    to win Connecticut Democratic Primary
    73%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Bernie Sanders
    Connecticut Democratic Primary
    33%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win Delaware Republican Primary
    86%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win Delaware Republican Primary
    14%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win Delaware Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Hillary Clinton
    to win Delaware Democratic Primary
    87%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Bernie Sanders
    to win Delaware Democratic Primary
    13%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win Maryland Republican Primary
    81%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win Maryland Republican Primary
    18%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win Maryland Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Hillary Clinton
    to win Maryland Democratic Primary
    92%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Bernie Sanders
    to win Maryland Democratic Primary
    8%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win Pennsylvania Republican Primary
    88%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win Pennsylvania Republican Primary
    11%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win Pennsylvania Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Hillary Clinton
    to win Pennsylvania Democratic Primary
    84%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Bernie Sanders
    to win Pennsylvania Democratic Primary
    18%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win Rhode Island Republican Primary
    95%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win Rhode Island Republican Primary
    4%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win Rhode Island Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Hillary Clinton
    to win Rhode Island Democratic Primary
    72%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Bernie Sanders
    to win Rhode Island Democratic Primary
    28%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win Indiana Republican Primary
    15%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win Indiana Republican Primary
    85%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win Indiana Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win Nebraska Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win Nebraska Republican Primary
    99%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win Nebraska Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win West Virginia Republican Primary
    87%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win West Virginia Republican Primary
    13%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win West Virginia Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win Oregon Republican Primary
    20%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win Oregon Republican Primary
    82%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win Oregon Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win Washington Republican Primary
    16%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win Washington Republican Primary
    84%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win Washington Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win California Republican Primary
    63%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win California Republican Primary
    36%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win California Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win Montana Republican Primary
    2%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win Montana Republican Primary
    98%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win Montana Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win New Jersey Republican Primary
    97%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win New Jersey Republican Primary
    2%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win New Jersey Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win New Mexico Republican Primary
    25%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win New Mexico Republican Primary
    75%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win New Mexico Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Donald Trump
    to win South Dakota Republican Primary
    4%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    Ted Cruz
    to win South Dakota Republican Primary
    94%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
    John Kasich
    to win South Dakota Republican Primary
    1%
    live odds

    Will the odds go up or down?
     
    my comments: 
     
    What I find most interesting about the betting odds now is that Trump has dropped from about 74% becoming the Republican Nominee for president to only 52% now. This is because it is likely going to be a contested  Republican convention and it is unlikely that Trump can win on a first ballot and because Cruz is outgunning him in delegate selection by out maneuvering him. So, it is very unlikely that Trump can be nominated on a first ballot and if he isn't it might not be Cruz either on a second ballot. It could even be Kasich on a 2nd or 3rd ballot. So, I don't think Cruz gets the nomination either way. I think it either will be Trump on a first ballot or it will be Kasich with Rubio as the vice presidential nominee on the 2nd or 3rd ballot at this point. 

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