The ultimate prediction marketplace for the races and issues that matter most.
28%
live odds
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GOP Convention 1st Vote
produces no nominee incl. unbound delegates
81%
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Republicans
to win Presidency
24%
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Democrats
to win Presidency
76%
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Political Prediction Market
Republicans
to retain control of the House
90%
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Democrats
to take control of the House
10%
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Republicans
to retain Senate majority
59%
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Democrats
to take Senate majority
41%
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Republicans
Ted Cruz
to be Republican nominee
43%
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Donald Trump
to be Republican nominee
52%
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John Kasich
to be Republican nominee
2%
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Democrats
Bernie Sanders
to be Democratic nominee
14%
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Hillary Clinton
to be Democratic nominee
85%
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Who will be president?
Hillary Clinton
to be the next US President
70%
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Donald Trump
to be the next US President
11%
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Bernie Sanders
to be the next US President
6%
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Ted Cruz
to be the next US President
11%
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Upcoming primaries
Donald Trump
to win New York Republican Primary
99%
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Ted Cruz
to win New York Republican Primary
1%
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John Kasich
to win New York Republican Primary
1%
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Hillary Clinton
to win New York Democratic Primary
86%
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Bernie Sanders
to win New York Democratic Primary
14%
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Donald Trump
to win Connecticut Republican Primary
94%
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Ted Cruz
to win Connecticut Republican Primary
4%
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John Kasich
to win Connecticut Republican Primary
1%
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Hillary Clinton
to win Connecticut Democratic Primary
73%
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Bernie Sanders
Connecticut Democratic Primary
33%
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Donald Trump
to win Delaware Republican Primary
86%
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Ted Cruz
to win Delaware Republican Primary
14%
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John Kasich
to win Delaware Republican Primary
1%
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Hillary Clinton
to win Delaware Democratic Primary
87%
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Bernie Sanders
to win Delaware Democratic Primary
13%
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Donald Trump
to win Maryland Republican Primary
81%
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Ted Cruz
to win Maryland Republican Primary
18%
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John Kasich
to win Maryland Republican Primary
1%
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Hillary Clinton
to win Maryland Democratic Primary
92%
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Bernie Sanders
to win Maryland Democratic Primary
8%
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Donald Trump
to win Pennsylvania Republican Primary
88%
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Ted Cruz
to win Pennsylvania Republican Primary
11%
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John Kasich
to win Pennsylvania Republican Primary
1%
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Hillary Clinton
to win Pennsylvania Democratic Primary
84%
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Bernie Sanders
to win Pennsylvania Democratic Primary
18%
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Donald Trump
to win Rhode Island Republican Primary
95%
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Ted Cruz
to win Rhode Island Republican Primary
4%
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John Kasich
to win Rhode Island Republican Primary
1%
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Hillary Clinton
to win Rhode Island Democratic Primary
72%
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Bernie Sanders
to win Rhode Island Democratic Primary
28%
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Donald Trump
to win Indiana Republican Primary
15%
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Ted Cruz
to win Indiana Republican Primary
85%
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John Kasich
to win Indiana Republican Primary
1%
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Donald Trump
to win Nebraska Republican Primary
1%
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Ted Cruz
to win Nebraska Republican Primary
99%
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John Kasich
to win Nebraska Republican Primary
1%
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Donald Trump
to win West Virginia Republican Primary
87%
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Ted Cruz
to win West Virginia Republican Primary
13%
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John Kasich
to win West Virginia Republican Primary
1%
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Donald Trump
to win Oregon Republican Primary
20%
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Ted Cruz
to win Oregon Republican Primary
82%
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John Kasich
to win Oregon Republican Primary
1%
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Donald Trump
to win Washington Republican Primary
16%
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Ted Cruz
to win Washington Republican Primary
84%
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John Kasich
to win Washington Republican Primary
1%
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Donald Trump
to win California Republican Primary
63%
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Ted Cruz
to win California Republican Primary
36%
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John Kasich
to win California Republican Primary
1%
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Donald Trump
to win Montana Republican Primary
2%
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Ted Cruz
to win Montana Republican Primary
98%
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John Kasich
to win Montana Republican Primary
1%
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Donald Trump
to win New Jersey Republican Primary
97%
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Ted Cruz
to win New Jersey Republican Primary
2%
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John Kasich
to win New Jersey Republican Primary
1%
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Donald Trump
to win New Mexico Republican Primary
25%
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Ted Cruz
to win New Mexico Republican Primary
75%
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John Kasich
to win New Mexico Republican Primary
1%
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Donald Trump
to win South Dakota Republican Primary
4%
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Ted Cruz
to win South Dakota Republican Primary
94%
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John Kasich
to win South Dakota Republican Primary
1%
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my comments:
What I find most interesting about the betting odds now is that Trump has dropped from about 74% becoming the Republican Nominee for president to only 52% now. This is because it is likely going to be a contested Republican convention and it is unlikely that Trump can win on a first ballot and because Cruz is outgunning him in delegate selection by out maneuvering him. So, it is very unlikely that Trump can be nominated on a first ballot and if he isn't it might not be Cruz either on a second ballot. It could even be Kasich on a 2nd or 3rd ballot. So, I don't think Cruz gets the nomination either way. I think it either will be Trump on a first ballot or it will be Kasich with Rubio as the vice presidential nominee on the 2nd or 3rd ballot at this point.
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