Saudi Arabia and other mideast oil nations might need low oil prices to stay intact as governments

I'm surprised I don't hear more about this when people try to predict oil prices. Maybe we don't hear about it because it is strategic in a military way in regard to the long term survivability of many governments in the middle east.

Think about this for a moment. Low oil prices defund Isis. They also defund Iran. Saudi Arabia wants both of these things to happen. Saudi Arabia and many other countries have at least 40 years or more of high oil prices most of the time with relatively low overhead in pumping that oil out of the ground compared to most other countries. So, that money has been wisely invested in STocks and bonds and various kinds of property around the world since then.

Low prices under these conditions keep the Saudi Royal Family in power in Saudi Arabia and all other ruling families in oil rich nations there in power too.

So, when the world looks at the mideast often they don't see this like I do.

Then to compound this problem for oil producers worldwide, the U.S. needs high prices in order to keep going for shale oil which is expensive to refine compared to oil you drill in the ground deep to get.

So, American companies don't want to shut down shale production because it might be forever or never before they have the capital to start up again. This is likely echoed around the world wherever companies don't want to give up the investments they have already made into shale oil production including Canada and many other countries.

So, this likely will drive the price down  to maybe $20 a barrel if all these trends continue. Because companies likely will continue to get shale oil even if they can make the cost with no profit at all. It is only when it goes beyond their costs of gathering and refining shale oil that they might begin to stop producing shale oil already in production and maybe not even then will they stop because of the investments so far.

Because of all these things and more I would think it is more likely for the price of oil to jump around yes, but also to trend downward at least until ISIS is defeated on the ground as a standing army.

So, this might be the turning point of the price of oil going back up and it might be the only way we would know for sure maybe that the price of oil is going to skyrocket soon once again.